TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,385,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,210,599

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,385,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x395d…21ebbacked No0c3,020,813$14,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,868.270%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d2…3240backed No0c2,294,958$8,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,434.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…1942backed No0c380,227$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.8520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca08…932bbacked No0c218,474$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c84…7e97backed No0c208,333$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No0c197,000$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24332029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…4fa1backed No0c148,911$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe456…099dbacked No0c146,893$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd15b…a7fdbacked No0c144,714$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.2440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6667…f5efbacked No0c124,817$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0138…7e75backed No0c113,703$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ae…2affbacked No0c110,592$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb8…b577backed No0c103,167$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-81.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked No0c100,000$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5305…b518backed No0c84,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb21…e043backed No0c80,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8080%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22ac…8000backed No0c71,447$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ec…c72dbacked No0c70,115$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfb…359fbacked No0c68,472$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.841323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b6b…587cbacked No0c68,260$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da4…ef21backed No0c65,930$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c4…e61cbacked No1c64,367$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8545…8a8cbacked No0c57,146$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe093…59cdbacked No0c50,530$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1574…8b9dbacked No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc46…a7ecbacked No0c50,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5119…29d9backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f6…9c7dbacked No1c48,505$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa839…376dbacked No0c45,200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd391…8d85backed No0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x794c…0b89backed No0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed No0c37,412$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed No0c36,653$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e3c…46c6backed No0c35,479$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9469…6e7fbacked No0c34,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea69…00d7backed No1c33,119$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…50e7backed No3c32,827$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d7…ea8fbacked No0c31,801$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…6df4backed No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ce…07adbacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d4…679ebacked No0c28,020$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c28,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa224…5addbacked No0c26,316$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.650%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c25,557$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e2…b7bebacked No0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+186.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8831…084ebacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e30…a411backed No0c24,500$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe88…e74fbacked No0c24,077$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No0c23,781$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3880…40e0backed No0c22,640$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8733…931cbacked No0c22,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eca…1deabacked No0c22,458$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c9…5728backed No0c22,333$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…cadfbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8f…c8a7backed No0c18,490$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2000…e9dabacked No0c16,657$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9593…2d78backed No0c16,176$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc258…08c2backed No0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048e…6e41backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f4…66e6backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-49.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4940…ce01backed No0c14,799$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa922…f461backed No1c14,500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d45…1b95backed No0c14,033$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7ab…4e66backed No0c13,710$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed No1c13,076$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf85a…be39backed No0c13,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0e…1de6backed No0c12,960$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f5…036abacked No0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10df…328fbacked No0c12,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb088…3862backed No0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2623…5ed2backed No0c12,040$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed No0c12,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29140%0 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6942…eaaebacked No0c11,430$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf801…1d7bbacked No0c11,333$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ca7…4050backed No0c11,325$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48da…c0dbbacked No0c10,990$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed No1c10,761$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…3aefbacked No0c10,540$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4502…9ea3backed No0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34e0…8235backed No0c10,480$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No0c10,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7e2…1f24backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1baa…173dbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb140…2c6abacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd9…82c5backed No0c9,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f8…30e1backed No0c9,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b80…adccbacked No0c8,857$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe780…6982backed No1c8,730$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a8…78fcbacked No0c8,685$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbceb…d862backed No0c8,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x456f…37f3backed No1c8,461$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No0c7,807$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.936530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b2f…cb55backed No5c7,669$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…48aebacked No0c7,548$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3a…f687backed No0c7,537$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c7,312$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.561,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No2c7,182$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked No0c7,172$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6460%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.