TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75ac…33d7backed No4c6,796$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No10c1,420$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.286540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c751.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No4c640$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62010%2 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid+30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No6c465$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.353935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes33c426.15$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.154182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No75c420.61$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.342951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes24c417.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a4…bf2dbacked Yes17c411.07$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+1,617.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3adb…aca8backed Yes14c366.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+458.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c80…fec1backed No67c231.82$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes76c230.49$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.693663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed No58c229.73$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.892236.4%8 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c223.55$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0714935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes8c185.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.631428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No79c173.48$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7253…505abacked Yes7c160$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.94per pick7cpaid+1,438.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No18c159.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea7…8ff7backed Yes36c137.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No75c127.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.491816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes17c117.65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.654837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No24c112$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8744111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43c4…ea38backed No70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x029b…5937backed Yes33c91.35$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.35425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-23.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c83.17$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes16c82.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2614528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cb7…1429backed Yes14c74.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.011376.9%10 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.40per pick37cpaid+217.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x1645…9022backed Yes29c69.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.54560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+131.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x546a…36fdbacked No72c68.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b28…4129backed Yes37c54.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+490.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe068…c5eabacked No44c52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x473a…c40ebacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.661,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked No63c48.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No78c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.163357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.083540%14 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No66c36.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0933618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe9fe…f3bcbacked No74c34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1620%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28d9…17bbbacked No73c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.062240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No58c29.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No74c23.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.319160.4%55 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…0b71backed Yes60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No68c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.883056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.