TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79e7…f41f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Boxing, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.2
Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.12
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+733.3%+$88
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+27.1%+$10.65
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Trump designate ANTIFA a terrorist organization by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$205.66
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.21
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.99
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.74
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.28
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.57
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$147.76
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$324.99
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.23
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.62
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.87
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.68
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$72
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Israel military action against Iran before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will the U.S. remove HTS from terror list before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+112.8%+$22.55
Iran Nuke in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$39
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$22.5
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.6
Starmer out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Trudeau out in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 3 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight go the distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+150%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.