TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,805,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,110,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805,885 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 479 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ddd…a655backed Yes0c1,154,684$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,769.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd447…13b8backed Yes0c815,966$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes0c462,169$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes0c310,328$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-77.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes19c260,887$49,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,162.573542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a2…3ae4backed Yes0c195,129$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe16d…8734backed Yes0c155,116$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d62…06ebbacked Yes23c139,708$32,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,499.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f93…6197backed Yes0c128,580$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked Yes0c127,250$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c50…3612backed Yes0c84,411$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes0c83,793$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.521241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed Yes0c79,867$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.081346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bc1…89e0backed Yes0c75,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.111216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes0c72,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes0c70,667$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes4c61,580$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.9815032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c60,469$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.38150%0 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…f365backed Yes5c57,540$2,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.99425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+96.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes3c52,784$1,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.2418725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9138…68d0backed Yes0c52,667$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes1c52,378$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.12120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324d…73c8backed Yes0c49,933$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14c…00d7backed Yes1c46,846$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed Yes0c45,512$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.74616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-78.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe9…4424backed Yes0c42,000$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d4…c50cbacked Yes0c38,685$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe103…59fdbacked No66c37,112$24,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,764.834951%25 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b03…6eaabacked Yes0c31,625$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f3…d86bbacked Yes0c30,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes0c29,592$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.593221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48e…7a17backed Yes0c29,500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes0c28,982$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.181926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2778…0b30backed Yes0c27,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6024…9101backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1a5…7019backed Yes0c19,998$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd778…6e4dbacked Yes0c18,633$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c35…1a76backed Yes0c16,181$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdaa…8420backed Yes0c16,074$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked No72c16,000$11,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4824542.2%19 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No79c15,146$12,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,111.222951.7%15 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6115…1befbacked Yes0c14,758$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No44c13,254$5,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,446.655343.4%23 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dbe…4c2bbacked Yes0c12,167$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4129…ced6backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes3c10,704$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.3632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No78c10,620$8,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,376.6711936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb920…83c0backed Yes1c10,573$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa968…aa45backed Yes1c10,200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfd…8c00backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b9…4d3fbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103112.9%4 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25c…36fcbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes0c9,500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x62f1…81e3backed Yes0c9,394$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d3…63d9backed Yes0c9,383$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No73c9,347$6,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,509.914938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6201…6fbdbacked Yes0c9,168$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes1c9,053$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0714125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…c005backed Yes0c8,823$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.471250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6075…a4ecbacked Yes0c8,643$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes4c8,213$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.2813943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf191…a826backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes29c7,309$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.9133313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c7,300$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,193.311120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc50f…d974backed Yes0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6528…8aefbacked Yes0c6,718$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd730…9a24backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No78c6,528$5,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.433969.2%27 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…b9e3backed Yes0c6,310$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7878…7975backed Yes0c6,309$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No57c6,306$3,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,740.6910950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes0c6,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3e97backed Yes0c6,101$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd13d…12a5backed Yes0c6,024$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes21c5,975$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No58c5,677$3,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.262369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes0c5,616$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes0c5,490$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+183.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed Yes29c5,431$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.221241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2051…021dbacked Yes0c5,007$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+41.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43da…7457backed Yes9c4,913$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509d…0f6ebacked Yes48c4,904$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa32f…5458backed Yes0c4,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…6896backed Yes56c4,518$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-60.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbfe…0845backed No55c4,191$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.18862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No78c4,062$3,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.9416144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes0c4,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.63721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No78c3,779$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.9510347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f93…c4d3backed Yes37c3,570$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f3…d859backed No75c3,400$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.353948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ab9…5f7abacked Yes0c3,369$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8662…c94fbacked Yes0c3,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.253026.7%8 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f6…a3f4backed No79c3,116$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.423100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fc0…843dbacked Yes50c2,994$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.25837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick51cpaid+39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9096…8f86backed Yes1c2,963$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbde…01c3backed Yes0c2,947$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.851338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…3eecbacked No5c2,838$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,703.644100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+562.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.