TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$197,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$190,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,399 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x42a6…1b64backed No36c22,893$8,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,558.2811940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes75c20,803$15,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,529.584833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No11c10,014$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,890.213928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes47c7,235$3,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.893737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72f3…ba51backed Yes73c5,486$3,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99630%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No40c5,242$2,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,140.2710055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No27c4,882$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,563.661163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+56.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x439b…f412backed No59c4,406$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No29c4,328$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,080.9910749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes24c4,237$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.816221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No54c4,209$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.7669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No20c4,018$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,231.253859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No35c3,904$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,525.8410834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes2c2,885$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.124717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes66c2,777$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.91296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No49c2,712$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.5610056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef5…1a76backed Yes15c2,342$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.431225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes2c2,111$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No39c2,076$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,262.795349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Yes68c2,000$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,360425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed No43c1,906$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.658820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No44c1,879$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.718444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No68c1,800$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No63c1,713$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.6215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No56c1,624$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.4717633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes26c1,571$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.1916535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes54c1,559$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23ce…17dabacked Yes59c1,517$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bfd…007ebacked Yes16c1,462$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb7…75f2backed Yes68c1,426$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.95333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No53c1,329$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.885644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No29c1,292$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.4623639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x235c…ba38backed Yes68c1,218$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8301250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No53c1,200$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.6615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No32c1,146$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.2423149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes37c1,143$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4256119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes12c1,104$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.8719436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes56c1,031$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.7499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5703023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19be…f052backed Yes36c1,000$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick45cpaid-75.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes25c999.99$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2517646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No37c994.64$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.483930.8%12 W · 27 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes73c972.82$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.211450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes33c920.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes23c875.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fe…1779backed Yes66c800.23$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.332339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes71c766.28$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.051435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes61c742.76$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.946246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No60c720$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.84744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes8c665$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes58c658.61$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.131540%6 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes9c621.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.588020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No38c575.65$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.5296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a7…05d6backed Yes75c570.73$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.95540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick72cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No29c532.78$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.618033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7830…783fbacked No59c530.55$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.871952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No42c523.68$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.466131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes57c515.57$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.137432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No29c502.98$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3611918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3202661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ab1…7df3backed No75c500$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x140f…c7c1backed Yes8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No20c500$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.53920.5%8 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No13c498.91$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.572425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes73c498.49$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.91050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70e0…e8aebacked No40c490.8$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+89.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes63c480.01$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.631741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No21c434.6$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.336145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No31c412.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.1613556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x409e…6458backed No28c404.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2523138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No39c390$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.9611950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No41c389.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.0918445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes58c384.28$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…44d8backed Yes70c369.16$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80a3…d285backed Yes69c364.77$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafc2…d32ebacked Yes30c333.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No50c328$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4214125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No75c326.27$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed No31c319.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+60.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No40c316.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.611336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No20c308$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5217713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes75c292.37$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.851741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x640c…d173backed No32c291.52$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+123.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Yes64c280$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.362231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No27c253.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.146838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No11c250$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.382847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf215…9114backed No43c244.09$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.78812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick48cpaid-70.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf76b…2621backed Yes9c239$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No28c235.57$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.23724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c234.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.591,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No69c233.51$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.614858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No25c222.8$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.529746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed No28c217$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.24933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37b5…6a23backed Yes71c212.68$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x355a…98a6backed Yes67c207.85$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8530%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd09…abc3backed Yes10c206.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-47.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.