TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Michael Jackson be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$96,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,083

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x116f…2737backed No78c25,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,500450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+182.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c0…9cb4backed Yes22c25,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,5002100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+195.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No5c10,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.983928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c5,155$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.952847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No6c1,788$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.133859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1192…32ebbacked No6c1,700$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa414…d03dbacked No9c1,106$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes15c1,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8506053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…3ad5backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f2…714dbacked No10c988.45$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes13c707.35$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.393016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No56c674.34$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes35c599.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.591741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes61c544.13$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.666221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7a…2da9backed No9c530.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No10c416.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2617713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed No10c371.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes64c354.24$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.198231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Yes62c323.62$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No21c297.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5511918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe659…4f92backed Yes70c278.85$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.26540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71c…900ebacked No8c240.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4b…5d71backed Yes19c238.33$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.33812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes13c232.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.31229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c224.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe4a…884cbacked Yes44c220$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes77c206.88$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4514135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes13c200$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1743844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.217432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No35c199.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5d…54e1backed No10c190.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0970%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x766c…12b3backed No9c187.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes17c176.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4715243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c32…cdcebacked No10c148.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…a86ebacked No19c130.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No73c128.83$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6717238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fcd…2107backed Yes28c125$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.7742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+58.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes27c108$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.841450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a4a…3129backed Yes14c101.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.431315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.93360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes18c97.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.168544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No21c94.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No71c84.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4913455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97be…9afbbacked No65c77.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd6d…3141backed No72c69.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No57c66.06$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.467562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes70c64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.447475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No76c60$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.428636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed No73c58.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.547119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No27c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3817021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ab0…42debacked No62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+51.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No48c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8131840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No74c35$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.917544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed No35c34.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89de…08eebacked No59c34.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.42per pick56cpaid-81.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed Yes70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.571216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes72c27.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.735742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes54c22.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.383231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.83964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaafa…3471backed No80c15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.