TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,599
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,599 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes30c10,524$3,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,104.714833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No71c9,512$6,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,804.723149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes15c1,877$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.226221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No77c1,839$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4614135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes37c919$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.773016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes33c713.9$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1511918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9483…ed38backed No64c600$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2164100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked No74c584.37$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.189557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes12c500$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes25c497.6$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.763859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No69c458.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4311950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No62c420.03$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7213556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed No76c399.66$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.232445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed No77c399.24$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.171741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b5…6a23backed Yes30c330.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes5c317.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.195817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No71c314.51$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6528636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes14c295.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No68c292.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5411646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No70c290.98$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6611419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes31c267.6$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.283917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No74c257.47$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0917238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a07…05c1backed Yes5c244.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.244526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe091…9549backed Yes42c237.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c231.15$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.911,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6037740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No68c169.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.65149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No74c166.58$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.135644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c162.35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d5…cfb0backed Yes67c150.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No65c148.66$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.338544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes35c141.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8d…b32abacked No58c132.01$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc74…0a82backed Yes19c129.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No75c123.28$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.61,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabe0…706abacked Yes41c110.96$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes24c106.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.599810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-65%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb41…65bbbacked Yes30c92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ac…fcbebacked No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc46e…3f1fbacked Yes23c85.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6d…3141backed No62c81.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.047475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked No67c79.93$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.481952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…16f6backed No70c78.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.468100%8 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No58c74.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.437562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed No66c73.05$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.123268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd653…ba9abacked No65c70$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.22250%11 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ae…cc7cbacked Yes24c67.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-79.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd452…839abacked Yes32c62.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2799…ae03backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.15944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3132…a6b8backed No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.43360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0516…b98ebacked Yes35c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db8…ed19backed No79c50.82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.851855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes32c49.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5930319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa553…ca3cbacked Yes42c48.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb250…078cbacked Yes34c47.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.86714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No66c44.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.046349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.85437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes32c37.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.341450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed Yes42c35.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed No31c34.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.083073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc437…5772backed Yes68c29.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-63.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed No70c28.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.575168.6%35 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+64.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed No77c21.74$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9399…d9e6backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7576…f961backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa505…b899backed No69c18.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.59560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.