TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Ehud Barak be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes50c4,442$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2214833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No15c2,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3756740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No49c2,040$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0015349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…a478backed No50c1,890$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+115.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No49c1,000$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7510834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c599.98$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd632…7e17backed Yes21c500$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+64.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes69c482.85$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.511741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes55c435.8$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.416246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked Yes39c383.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.131533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No58c376.45$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.4110055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked No3c369$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.62817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes49c326.19$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No36c296.57$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0413556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd3eb…0829backed No43c186.51$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803023.3%7 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-51.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No27c181.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ea…0451backed Yes73c137.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No48c120$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.91533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3132…a6b8backed No45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd6d…3141backed No45c111.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…91eebacked No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35ed…acf1backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes58c98.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4111419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71f…fd04backed Yes54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd79d…5489backed Yes58c86.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe659…4f92backed Yes55c84.88$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes78c83.71$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0132626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4125…4897backed Yes72c76.7$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes53c75.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes55c72.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.366634.8%23 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes63c68.01$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.011266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+60.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1af4…dc57backed No45c66.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes57c66.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.75437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5bf…7a97backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0516…b98ebacked Yes55c60$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c7…51d0backed Yes56c53.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41ca…9c0abacked Yes20c53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+193.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a3c…2c04backed No47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1639…b984backed No39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe764…0479backed Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-76%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd000…3fb9backed No48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c1…054cbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x767b…8e36backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+46.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.866842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a77…0861backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No32c48.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.791,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes56c47.39$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.697562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.818914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…f825backed No50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes55c34.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6628636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes68c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.411450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No39c32.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7917238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed Yes63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes64c31.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.453414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x10cf…010dbacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0da4…86fbbacked Yes55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae21…66cbbacked Yes64c29.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2f6…1796backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf5d…ed2bbacked Yes78c24.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes58c22.52$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.523231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…dd4cbacked Yes56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0532…0b95backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5725…36e3backed Yes74c19.98$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.193540%14 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.