TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,693
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,693 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c3,333$27 inLost-$27.464717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c1,200$40 inLost-$402847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes1c889.61$13 inLost-$12.8217633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes13c748$99 inLost-$98.743016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf422…6743backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost-$504119.5%8 W · 33 L-6.5wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-48.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes3c575.5$20 inLost-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c490.15$19 inLost-$19.21,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes3c396.72$10 inLost-$10.416618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa78a…6c46backed Yes34c293.64$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b8…b271backed Yes11c201.85$22 inLost-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ea…0451backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ba1…f001backed Yes17c164.69$27 inLost-$27.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…ac57backed Yes12c160.14$20 inLost-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7c3…087dbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost-$10922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes13c111$14 inLost-$14.4318914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes13c102.19$13 inLost-$13.4528636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2c…3544backed Yes25c100$25 inLost-$24.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes12c99.99$12 inLost-$121711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No14c76.2$10 inWon+$65.811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa553…ca3cbacked Yes44c45.54$20 inLost-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No56c20$11 inWon+$8.87475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed No80c16.11$13 inWon+$3.223644.4%16 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.