TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Joe Biden be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,178 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c2,060$21 inLost-$21.284717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes9c1,514$131 inLost-$131.316221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes10c1,100$105 inLost-$1056119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes11c538$61 inLost-$61.183016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b8…b271backed Yes12c500$60 inLost-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes11c354.99$39 inLost-$39.0539522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes12c301.79$36 inLost-$36.415437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9421…8747backed Yes14c223.21$31 inLost-$30.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes13c223.04$29 inLost-$29.0111918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a3d…e107backed Yes10c210$21 inLost-$211513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ea…0451backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0d9a…2d2fbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa553…ca3cbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xad37…58e5backed No77c129.87$100 inWon+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba1…f001backed Yes14c128.57$18 inLost-$1840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes12c120.94$15 inLost-$14.619810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes12c110$13 inLost-$13.0128636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes23c107$25 inLost-$24.6117238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$104119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x079a…ee61backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$141315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed Yes12c100$12 inLost-$121127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.