Us Politics · resolved market
Will Henry Kissinger be named in Epstein files?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa64f4be944583a698914beb78ef90fbbebfc24122d48d3a49daf5003b308aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 74c | 204.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8f…162cbacked Yes | 62c | 185.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 49c | 181.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…d4a0backed Yes | 66c | 167.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 14c | 111.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 22c | 108.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed No | 52c | 103.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 50c | 90.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35ed…acf1backed Yes | 40c | 83.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 41c | 80.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 37c | 57.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 36c | 55.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 31c | 50.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…2c04backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120b…6561backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe764…0479backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -76%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd000…3fb9backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…7265backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a77…0861backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8c…6759backed No | 79c | 25.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in Epstein files?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Chuck Schumer be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will David Copperfield be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will David Koch be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Jay-Z be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Joe Biden be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Kevin Spacey be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Larry Page be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Quinten Tarantino be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Stephen Colbert be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files?No won
- Will Tony Blair be named in Epstein files?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.