TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$343,989
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$356,843

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,989 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x63f3…dfa2backed Yes44c138,263$60,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60,835.7220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a7a…bf1fbacked No56c138,263$77,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,835.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes19c10,924$2,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,092.444833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfd…007ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes8c2,730$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.546221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…e954backed Yes16c865$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.553016.7%5 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x987c…2477backed Yes8c775.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…ca3cbacked Yes19c735.19$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.891711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes36c730.75$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.343859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8224…7598backed Yes9c600$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99c6…c9f9backed Yes6c598$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.88911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes13c501.24$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0111918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes54c416.87$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.226124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6ae…cc7cbacked Yes10c341.78$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-79.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes6c327.03$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.988020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes5c303$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.142025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes13c300$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…ac57backed Yes26c291.17$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40af…0aa6backed Yes41c257.11$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ded…4c43backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed No58c249.99$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed No71c230.81$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.854969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d0e…8d8fbacked Yes6c227.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No70c201.26$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.687562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb37…38b1backed No73c193.35$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.31425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…704cbacked No53c189.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.02250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes12c171.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c164.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.651,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No45c164.58$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.131250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c151.56$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.571,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes20c151.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No62c147.6$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7928636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes13c145$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.259810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes16c125.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68f6…7742backed No55c122$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3be6…90f3backed Yes17c108.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.480%0 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes19c103.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1439522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes34c99.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes17c86.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152119%4 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes14c85.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x524c…0070backed Yes15c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No59c75$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78f2…51a1backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6117021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No52c38.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.119160.4%55 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.