TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$474,169
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,315

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $474,169 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfdc1…6217backed No56c120,210$67,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,892.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0c2…764bbacked Yes44c120,210$52,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,892.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5baa…d1b0backed No59c99,106$58,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,633.46250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b8c…445fbacked Yes41c99,106$40,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,633.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+92.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes1c2,890$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.844717%8 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c1,779$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.8369634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72f3…ba51backed Yes76c1,776$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34930%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed Yes38c1,361$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.121741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes15c1,290$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.46221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No60c900.93$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.0111419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec48…baeebacked Yes4c737$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c699.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No64c592.57$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6714135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes24c579.99$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe461…9a34backed No78c517.88$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.332445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No61c486.48$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8711950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x10e0…781abacked No58c428.07$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.071435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No21c400$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31813556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes4c334.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.858020%16 W · 64 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No60c311.15$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.918544.7%38 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1405…f4aabacked Yes4c308$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No56c306.46$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3723149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes39c294.3$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.331533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c14…7d96backed Yes4c292$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x079a…ee61backed Yes26c288.91$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-68.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes33c281.31$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7fe1…3ad6backed Yes4c274$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…8665backed Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No63c259.27$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.885644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4a…884cbacked Yes43c258.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+74.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes40c248.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.341741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8280%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No59c197.15$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.031553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4e…1370backed No76c177.15$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.02475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes26c167.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1117713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No66c165.93$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.693745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes65c154.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002025%5 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes37c133.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf4…e0f3backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes28c129.26$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.573917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes40c124.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3211918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No51c110.67$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3211940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes46c108.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2564…1b02backed Yes53c105$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.271330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked Yes50c103.51$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.762227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes28c102$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0717238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes39c99.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick29cpaid-65%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed Yes38c97.54$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8150%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01fd…e674backed No40c96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes47c92.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x348a…9dd0backed No76c89.43$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4e…d786backed Yes45c88.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No34c81.82$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c75.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No55c72.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.457562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddca…41c5backed No37c70.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.64520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2c…ccb9backed Yes17c70.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee8b…6436backed No78c63.65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.251346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No60c62.76$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.112138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No51c60$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.46346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf97b…d61dbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ea…0451backed Yes36c56.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-76.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes23c55.49$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.764052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes37c54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.986137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes24c51.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1813455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-66.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a3c…2c04backed No52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3132…a6b8backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x120b…6561backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe764…0479backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-76%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd000…3fb9backed No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1612533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0516…b98ebacked Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4c…7265backed Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a77…0861backed Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes65c49.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.337475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed No61c49.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.189160.4%55 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c48.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa191…7facbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-68.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe450…79d9backed Yes73c45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8560%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb2c…0f77backed Yes35c41.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6850%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103231.3%10 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf639…5838backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2c18…c439backed Yes30c37.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4dd…6d79backed Yes66c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74037.5%15 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c26.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.441,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c90…2df8backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2799…ae03backed Yes39c25.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10214.8%1 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick15cpaid-81.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc195…5f72backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-47.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No63c24.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed No67c24.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.228256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.85944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.