TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,168,666
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,176,319

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,168,666 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,557 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2370…0e10backed Yes22c201,746$44,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,040.328220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Yes32c183,790$59,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,198.962050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes20c176,285$34,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,645.812015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes28c152,393$42,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,307.122015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes13c132,708$17,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,614.277311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No63c120,274$76,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,066.951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No48c74,785$35,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,237.2626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x091c…5d48backed Yes7c51,700$3,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,753.87812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…0967backed Yes36c51,505$18,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,393.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No69c50,553$35,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,511.2437740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaa…f756backed No68c36,928$25,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,922.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No46c34,036$15,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,470.653941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f8…ca0dbacked No78c33,869$26,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,290.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b62…a285backed Yes15c30,013$4,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,546.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No63c29,809$18,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,165.4713850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes24c28,040$6,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,732.233324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No77c23,013$17,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,331.91643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72d…37debacked Yes26c21,224$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed No54c21,000$11,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,643.261546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No64c20,260$12,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.551643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes32c20,220$6,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,571.051346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No53c20,000$10,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,487.6210150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed No47c19,290$9,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,219.251275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcf1…70a7backed Yes2c17,945$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed No80c17,479$13,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes63c15,665$9,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,919.547337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed No67c15,325$10,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,060.882445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes51c15,250$7,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,814.32650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+318.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes8c14,684$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.33240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes26c14,167$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.642142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No70c13,879$9,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,166.971741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes1c13,829$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.09100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9636…b7b7backed No38c13,094$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,094.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+75.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No67c13,000$8,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3502941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes4c12,899$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.871513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes47c12,771$5,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,958.882133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes37c12,261$4,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,504.355736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed No48c12,201$5,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,308.283148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02af…32cfbacked Yes45c12,047$5,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,379.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No55c11,814$6,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,289.979145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x939e…448cbacked Yes55c11,599$6,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,334.631250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+97%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ca…54b1backed Yes6c11,000$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.88837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64cf…8a8abacked No47c10,879$5,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,755.281450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes37c10,814$4,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,051.0540433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes4c10,756$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.22270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dfd…6e4abacked No36c10,438$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,704.423770.3%26 W · 11 L+10.0wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+109.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes65c10,419$6,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,759.22927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes7c10,018$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.9814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd001…743abacked Yes58c9,878$5,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,767.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…fe6cbacked Yes66c9,125$6,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,010.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd298…42aebacked Yes5c9,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes2c8,957$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.133732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae4…6974backed Yes12c8,680$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick17cpaid+80.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0739…8f90backed Yes5c8,512$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-75.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes6c8,509$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.9935819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No79c8,043$6,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.815836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No67c7,793$5,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.553633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No71c7,310$5,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.52450%12 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No59c7,201$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.210139.6%40 W · 61 L+10.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+32.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No50c7,077$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,557.553644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No60c7,068$4,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,822.656137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes2c6,895$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe17b…07eebacked Yes26c6,874$1,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No49c6,552$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,360.713141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes6c6,543$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.275026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes6c6,513$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x506a…0e59backed Yes51c6,470$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc31c…7830backed No61c6,280$3,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.57560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46e0…d69abacked Yes59c6,218$3,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,661.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed Yes50c6,178$3,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,072.21955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes8c6,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes1c5,625$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.286023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes38c5,442$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.725121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba7…daafbacked Yes53c5,396$2,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,856.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No43c5,331$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.379815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes59c5,321$3,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1511346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes15c5,174$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.064022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5071…e1a1backed Yes38c5,149$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x074a…511dbacked Yes43c5,112$2,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,197.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a7…2ee3backed No77c5,070$3,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,188.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd980…f637backed Yes51c5,013$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,556.63812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x691b…fce0backed No57c5,008$2,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes27c5,000$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3502740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdae3…e480backed Yes54c4,964$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes47c4,951$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,313.243053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes27c4,950$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.5387.9%3 W · 35 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7441…0069backed No42c4,868$2,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.63100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes23c4,736$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34cd…4231backed Yes66c4,565$3,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,031.811442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+96.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No48c4,541$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.883253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d8f…abb9backed Yes48c4,498$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.5360%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2aa3…15edbacked Yes59c4,418$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes46c4,385$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0983…7adbbacked Yes66c4,354$2,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.89450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes63c4,183$2,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,620.365158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8140…b92fbacked No42c4,163$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf745…538dbacked No74c4,065$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b64…9832backed Yes53c4,002$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.93540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes9c3,866$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.55714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04e…77dfbacked No70c3,828$2,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.