Middle East · resolved market
Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c843616fdd03f36785122aafd5e2b70bffe27e1e15fdbfe4d5b44f689b66388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,168,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,176,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,168,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,557 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 22c | 201,746$44,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,040.32 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 32c | 183,790$59,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,198.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 20c | 176,285$34,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,645.81 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 28c | 152,393$42,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,307.12 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 13c | 132,708$17,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,614.27 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 120,274$76,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,066.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 48c | 74,785$35,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,237.26 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…5d48backed Yes | 7c | 51,700$3,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,753.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…0967backed Yes | 36c | 51,505$18,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,393.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 69c | 50,553$35,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,511.24 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…f756backed No | 68c | 36,928$25,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,922.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 46c | 34,036$15,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,470.65 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…ca0dbacked No | 78c | 33,869$26,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,290.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b62…a285backed Yes | 15c | 30,013$4,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,546.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 63c | 29,809$18,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,165.47 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 24c | 28,040$6,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,732.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 77c | 23,013$17,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,331.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked Yes | 26c | 21,224$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,500.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 54c | 21,000$11,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,643.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 64c | 20,260$12,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,348.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 32c | 20,220$6,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,571.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 53c | 20,000$10,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,487.62 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 47c | 19,290$9,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,219.25 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…70a7backed Yes | 2c | 17,945$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed No | 80c | 17,479$13,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,538.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 63c | 15,665$9,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,919.54 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 67c | 15,325$10,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,060.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes | 51c | 15,250$7,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,814.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +318.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 8c | 14,684$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.33 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 26c | 14,167$3,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,743.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 70c | 13,879$9,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,166.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 13,829$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 38c | 13,094$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,094.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 67c | 13,000$8,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,350 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 4c | 12,899$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 47c | 12,771$5,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 37c | 12,261$4,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,504.35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 48c | 12,201$5,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,308.28 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…32cfbacked Yes | 45c | 12,047$5,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,379.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 55c | 11,814$6,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,289.97 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x939e…448cbacked Yes | 55c | 11,599$6,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,334.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +97%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…54b1backed Yes | 6c | 11,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked No | 47c | 10,879$5,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,755.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 37c | 10,814$4,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,051.05 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 10,756$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.22 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 36c | 10,438$3,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,704.42 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 65c | 10,419$6,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,759.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 10,018$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.98 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…743abacked Yes | 58c | 9,878$5,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,767.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…fe6cbacked Yes | 66c | 9,125$6,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,010.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd298…42aebacked Yes | 5c | 9,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,957$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…6974backed Yes | 12c | 8,680$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…8f90backed Yes | 5c | 8,512$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,509$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.99 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 79c | 8,043$6,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.81 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 67c | 7,793$5,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.55 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 71c | 7,310$5,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,131.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 59c | 7,201$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980.2 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 50c | 7,077$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,557.55 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 60c | 7,068$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.65 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,895$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…07eebacked Yes | 26c | 6,874$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 49c | 6,552$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360.71 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes | 6c | 6,543$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.27 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes | 6c | 6,513$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…0e59backed Yes | 51c | 6,470$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31c…7830backed No | 61c | 6,280$3,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…d69abacked Yes | 59c | 6,218$3,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,661.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 50c | 6,178$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 1c | 5,625$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 38c | 5,442$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.72 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…daafbacked Yes | 53c | 5,396$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 43c | 5,331$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.37 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…3e1dbacked Yes | 59c | 5,321$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,151 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 15c | 5,174$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.06 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5071…e1a1backed Yes | 38c | 5,149$1,951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074a…511dbacked Yes | 43c | 5,112$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16a7…2ee3backed No | 77c | 5,070$3,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…f637backed Yes | 51c | 5,013$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.63 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…fce0backed No | 57c | 5,008$2,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…e480backed Yes | 54c | 4,964$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 47c | 4,951$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,313.24 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 27c | 4,950$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,322.5 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7441…0069backed No | 42c | 4,868$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes | 23c | 4,736$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 66c | 4,565$3,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031.81 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 48c | 4,541$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.88 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8f…abb9backed Yes | 48c | 4,498$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa3…15edbacked Yes | 59c | 4,418$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 46c | 4,385$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0983…7adbbacked Yes | 66c | 4,354$2,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 63c | 4,183$2,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,620.36 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…b92fbacked No | 42c | 4,163$1,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,421.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…538dbacked No | 74c | 4,065$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…9832backed Yes | 53c | 4,002$2,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ec…ce12backed Yes | 9c | 3,866$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…77dfbacked No | 70c | 3,828$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.