Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467176b3079c10574bef26546e834f5d3c1551bada9ec1d43ee5814651a0baf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,462,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,396,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,462,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 633 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60df…a69ebacked Yes | 10c | 100,698$10,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,233 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…6127backed Yes | 5c | 50,006$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 11c | 35,900$4,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,073.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…a92abacked Yes | 10c | 29,780$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 20c | 26,434$5,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,414.56 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 10c | 22,265$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 5c | 18,197$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +430.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed No | 77c | 17,364$13,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 16,680$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.68 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 21c | 15,975$3,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,323.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 26c | 14,913$3,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,881.17 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes | 6c | 13,483$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77a…daf8backed Yes | 2c | 13,307$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514c…2485backed Yes | 4c | 11,895$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 22c | 11,372$2,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,501.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…97e3backed Yes | 26c | 10,778$2,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 9c | 10,681$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.73 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 78c | 10,546$8,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,226$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.44 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 9c | 9,332$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,971$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…fb00backed No | 80c | 8,331$6,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…541bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,358$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 7,009$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.56 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 13c | 6,757$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…d6c9backed Yes | 4c | 6,682$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 16c | 6,676$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.17 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…58d2backed Yes | 18c | 6,446$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dd…5625backed Yes | 5c | 6,307$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 6,285$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.87 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…83e2backed Yes | 25c | 5,914$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…896ebacked Yes | 17c | 5,907$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6a…7305backed Yes | 6c | 5,838$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…897ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,821$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 17c | 5,695$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 78c | 5,540$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 18c | 5,278$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,200$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…aca6backed No | 79c | 5,174$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 79c | 5,120$4,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.46 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.83 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…663dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,745$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…b877backed Yes | 8c | 4,730$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,690$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.47 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,535$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 4,524$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.71 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…38f6backed Yes | 21c | 3,811$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 10c | 3,684$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…da1abacked Yes | 14c | 3,604$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 13c | 3,550$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.3 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429e…63a4backed Yes | 5c | 3,530$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9608…f4d4backed Yes | 22c | 3,516$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe535…96d3backed Yes | 19c | 3,474$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…1047backed Yes | 8c | 3,460$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed No | 79c | 3,429$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…e0afbacked Yes | 7c | 3,281$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,236$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 3,200$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…8365backed Yes | 5c | 3,157$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd1…9ccdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,122$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 77c | 3,121$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.33 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 2c | 2,980$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…fe0abacked Yes | 5c | 2,957$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 22c | 2,952$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 20c | 2,948$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes | 20c | 2,931$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 13c | 2,852$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…d1bcbacked Yes | 18c | 2,751$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…3164backed Yes | 6c | 2,695$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed Yes | 11c | 2,641$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5600…9acabacked Yes | 8c | 2,622$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 75c | 2,613$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.17 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d84…086bbacked No | 75c | 2,600$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…aefbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,573$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 77c | 2,517$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…f58abacked Yes | 4c | 2,404$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +626.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 17c | 2,362$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…6d83backed Yes | 13c | 2,300$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…6dd7backed Yes | 17c | 2,295$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,251$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8de3backed Yes | 21c | 2,242$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…0908backed Yes | 6c | 2,115$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,113$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…106bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…1427backed No | 76c | 1,993$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,982$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 21c | 1,913$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.29 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c0…5589backed Yes | 3c | 1,894$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…22f4backed Yes | 8c | 1,880$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,841$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 20c | 1,781$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 13c | 1,754$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 18c | 1,730$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.33 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f11abacked Yes | 23c | 1,726$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,712$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…9dc0backed Yes | 15c | 1,694$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela by December 31?this page
- US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela by November 30?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by October 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.