Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1b054e176226b74cffcdf4653f47002067de7c28a82e3c8888815497fcae5d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $457,088
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $362,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,088 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 17,306$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 7c | 15,938$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d92…83e2backed Yes | 6c | 13,601$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 4c | 12,043$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 1c | 10,666$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 1c | 10,366$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…896ebacked Yes | 10c | 10,344$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.17 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…9276backed Yes | 5c | 9,614$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 7c | 9,546$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 8c | 9,077$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 1c | 8,431$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66be…19e5backed Yes | 2c | 7,564$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…83bebacked Yes | 8c | 7,051$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 4c | 6,544$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…feaabacked Yes | 1c | 5,848$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,715$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 6c | 5,415$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.95 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 5,411$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 5,400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes | 8c | 5,369$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d57…b2abbacked Yes | 5c | 5,301$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 5,168$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.73 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,116$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…3cf6backed Yes | 2c | 4,473$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 3c | 3,749$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 3,594$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 3,162$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 11c | 3,146$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 2c | 3,059$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9432…5aa5backed Yes | 4c | 2,325$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fe…d2c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,193$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,119$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,968$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…15b5backed Yes | 5c | 1,811$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 3c | 1,625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…78e8backed Yes | 8c | 1,324$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,269$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…650bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,236$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…f949backed Yes | 5c | 1,118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,056$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…864cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,025$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 12c | 974.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 4c | 952.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…7418backed Yes | 7c | 899.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 2c | 848.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes | 2c | 837.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60a…5cf0backed Yes | 10c | 819.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…f714backed Yes | 6c | 768.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 4c | 767.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Yes | 3c | 746.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 6c | 743.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…cd20backed Yes | 3c | 698.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…88a5backed Yes | 7c | 685.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 3c | 667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…f008backed Yes | 3c | 662.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 648.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…ced9backed Yes | 6c | 637.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…c63ebacked Yes | 10c | 612.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3b…2bf1backed Yes | 3c | 610.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…1a88backed Yes | 4c | 523.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 5c | 516.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 8c | 506$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…90e1backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 8c | 495.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…3948backed Yes | 7c | 456$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b328backed Yes | 26c | 454.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…cd66backed Yes | 11c | 448.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked Yes | 11c | 446.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2c…b751backed Yes | 6c | 439.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 438$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f33…510abacked Yes | 5c | 427.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 7c | 427.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 8c | 415.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 6c | 395.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…6139backed Yes | 6c | 376.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 5c | 370.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…d12cbacked Yes | 7c | 290.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f1a9backed Yes | 6c | 288.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 8c | 287.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…34e9backed Yes | 7c | 282.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…e343backed Yes | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 7c | 271.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…bcacbacked Yes | 5c | 267.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 8c | 265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…b0a4backed Yes | 8c | 248.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9768…c18abacked Yes | 6c | 245.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 40c | 221.77$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.84 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 13c | 209.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -8.3wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela by October 31?this page
- US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela by November 30?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.