TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

US forces in Venezuela by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$457,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$362,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x950a…b380backed Yes1c17,306$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.33210%0 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes7c15,938$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d92…83e2backed Yes6c13,601$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd95…8c17backed Yes4c12,043$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.091936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes1c10,666$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes1c10,366$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.794323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3199…896ebacked Yes10c10,344$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes4c10,000$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.173218.8%6 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x036e…9276backed Yes5c9,614$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e40…f622backed Yes7c9,546$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6291816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed Yes8c9,077$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.36520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed Yes1c8,431$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.511513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-75.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x66be…19e5backed Yes2c7,564$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…83bebacked Yes8c7,051$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes4c6,544$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.58616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf712…feaabacked Yes1c5,848$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes4c5,715$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.9390%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes6c5,415$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.95333%1 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-40.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes1c5,411$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5635519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c5,400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c3…bd13backed Yes8c5,369$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d57…b2abbacked Yes5c5,301$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c5,168$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.731428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes3c5,116$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.25614.3%8 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d76…3cf6backed Yes2c4,473$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes3c3,749$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.511822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c3,594$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.461,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes1c3,162$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.27336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-91.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe427…4c44backed Yes11c3,146$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+47.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee83…f6d7backed Yes2c3,059$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.58160%0 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9432…5aa5backed Yes4c2,325$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes1c2,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4fe…d2c6backed Yes1c2,193$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes6c2,119$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.752123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3939…68cfbacked Yes1c1,968$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc7…15b5backed Yes5c1,811$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes3c1,625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes1c1,330$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd9e…78e8backed Yes8c1,324$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.16922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes9c1,269$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.081625%4 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…650bbacked Yes1c1,236$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc908…f949backed Yes5c1,118$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes4c1,100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes4c1,056$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.041466.2%9 W · 137 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…d37cbacked Yes2c1,044$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3d…864cbacked Yes5c1,025$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c1,001$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a3…3490backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes8c1,000$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes12c974.49$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Yes4c952.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb439…7418backed Yes7c899.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.81540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes2c848.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…fa8bbacked Yes2c837.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60a…5cf0backed Yes10c819.94$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a23…f714backed Yes6c768.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes4c767.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.881127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa4…a1bfbacked Yes3c746.84$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-73.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes6c743.69$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+71.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7483…cd20backed Yes3c698.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Yes7c685.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes3c667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.011729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3c…f008backed Yes3c662.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c648.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…ced9backed Yes6c637.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.15911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick18cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x487d…c63ebacked Yes10c612.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3b…2bf1backed Yes3c610.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a6…1a88backed Yes4c523.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes5c516.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.868749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes8c506$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.171010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1521…90e1backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…1456backed Yes11c499.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-39.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes8c495.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2213341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…3948backed Yes7c456$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…b328backed Yes26c454.7$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3854…cd66backed Yes11c448.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c47…882abacked Yes11c446.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a2c…b751backed Yes6c439.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c438$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8711010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f33…510abacked Yes5c427.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd570…b90abacked Yes7c427.1$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6470%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2216…4accbacked Yes8c415.52$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7772…5e17backed Yes6c395.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.391010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50fb…6139backed Yes6c376.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+41.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.137332.9%24 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes5c370.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.693721.6%8 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes6c350$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.855726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa53b…d12cbacked Yes7c290.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3500…f1a9backed Yes6c288.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed Yes8c287.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.181323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9966…34e9backed Yes7c282.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c1…e343backed Yes6c280$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes7c271.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.46838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe747…bcacbacked Yes5c267.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.34130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes8c265$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.55728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-58%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796a…b0a4backed Yes8c248.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9768…c18abacked Yes6c245.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No40c221.77$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.843966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed Yes13c209.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.336126.2%16 W · 45 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-48.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.