Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437cf49afb5743c4f40b24fdc920f333dbb739604d4615eda4edafce1a5c26c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $514,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $431,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $514,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7968…d714backed Yes | 6c | 31,573$1,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4e…7196backed Yes | 8c | 24,044$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.55 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 19,233$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.11 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 4c | 13,157$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 12c | 12,431$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +171.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 4c | 9,605$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 9,558$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.08 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 8,494$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 7,669$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 5c | 7,125$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…42e7backed Yes | 3c | 6,273$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 5,501$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.21 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b76…31f3backed Yes | 10c | 5,191$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +251.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 4c | 5,032$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,242$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…2473backed Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 3,760$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.09 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…3177backed Yes | 3c | 3,663$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…d080backed Yes | 14c | 3,636$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,379$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.66 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 7c | 3,325$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.84 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,012$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…45e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,814$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…c716backed Yes | 10c | 2,757$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.43 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…e2efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,708$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6e…7918backed Yes | 4c | 2,652$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…7ec1backed Yes | 2c | 2,456$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes | 14c | 2,350$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,248$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…cc71backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fe…d2c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,997$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…f5bdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,959$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,918$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,900$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…f474backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,601$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…cb9ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,571$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…f0a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…2925backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 4c | 1,380$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…0e1bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,368$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,321$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…3dbabacked Yes | 3c | 1,296$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…0b3abacked Yes | 6c | 1,100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…933dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4299…25fabacked Yes | 2c | 985.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b4…9881backed Yes | 8c | 967.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac5d…4162backed Yes | 5c | 949.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…b39dbacked Yes | 13c | 934.54$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf676…ccc3backed Yes | 11c | 891.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…3eb3backed Yes | 2c | 835.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…deddbacked Yes | 10c | 822.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…594ebacked Yes | 12c | 814.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 10c | 799.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 11c | 796.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…7910backed Yes | 3c | 777.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 771.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 11c | 754.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fb…0097backed Yes | 7c | 753.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…f17cbacked Yes | 13c | 746.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 6c | 737$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…9450backed Yes | 14c | 720.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b6…7e94backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9776…390bbacked Yes | 10c | 702.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2972…79f4backed Yes | 7c | 675.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 661.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +87%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 11c | 659.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…603bbacked Yes | 15c | 656.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddd…53ebbacked Yes | 5c | 655.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +241.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…a102backed Yes | 9c | 626.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…f622backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…fc59backed Yes | 2c | 594.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…3eadbacked Yes | 2c | 571.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 9c | 560$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 7c | 550$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…f9adbacked Yes | 4c | 539.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…996cbacked Yes | 3c | 508$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe377…950dbacked Yes | 6c | 489.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed Yes | 10c | 487.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…cd20backed Yes | 4c | 472.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd223…2b92backed Yes | 5c | 461.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d31…cb04backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed Yes | 11c | 440.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4253…8eebbacked Yes | 5c | 438.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7a14backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 414.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 412.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef55…1b20backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…db19backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…723ebacked Yes | 8c | 378.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela by November 30?this page
- US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela by October 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.