Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb3d3597be156c6eb4721bc40bf16a084bb647e5ab5bab26f4cc77e58fb5111
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $411,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $353,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $411,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 36,548$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 0c | 34,524$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 0c | 24,229$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…ad17backed No | 0c | 23,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed No | 0c | 21,968$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 0c | 21,948$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e9…08e4backed No | 6c | 17,872$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…116fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…e1c4backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 80c | 9,999$7,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x104d…5e40backed No | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…9b6cbacked No | 0c | 7,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…0313backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 32c | 4,741$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,241.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked No | 11c | 3,762$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 3,126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 14c | 2,800$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.8 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 20c | 2,800$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0e…9036backed Yes | 24c | 2,673$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 6c | 2,392$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 7c | 2,018$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed No | 80c | 1,717$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 73c | 1,669$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,658$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…dbcabacked No | 73c | 1,500$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 4c | 1,465$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x027a…ea13backed No | 17c | 1,455$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,387$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 980.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 37c | 740.6$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa4…2275backed No | 14c | 689.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 493.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e17…2b55backed No | 2c | 489.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…757dbacked No | 23c | 442.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 77c | 388.58$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 22c | 335$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb401…df2abacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 16c | 260$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68d…ec12backed Yes | 20c | 251.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +402.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 32c | 250.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.63 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 13c | 243.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 14c | 225.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 8c | 191.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e33…8b7abacked No | 20c | 136.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…b68bbacked No | 22c | 133.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…8d5cbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…ce87backed Yes | 27c | 110.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 26c | 101.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…08efbacked No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…bdf0backed Yes | 27c | 89.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +223.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…8b55backed Yes | 34c | 87.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 29c | 86.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 79.73$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df4…2bd9backed Yes | 23c | 59.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4c…98b5backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…d765backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…b785backed Yes | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 72c | 43.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…27f4backed Yes | 30c | 36.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +228.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 34.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…c715backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 66c | 30.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…5e84backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…0231backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f8…265dbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?this page
- US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by November 30?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by October 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.