TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xff94…c347

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
234
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 59 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT5858.6%34 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+22.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.72
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+635.6%+$388.83
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.4
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+265.6%+$53.12
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+151.4%+$30.28
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.1
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.95
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.11
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+37%+$4.86
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+103.2%+$32.14
Portugal vs. Spain: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.4
Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
Mexico vs. England: 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.25
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Brazil vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$8.29
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+279%+$41.85
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+84.6%+$12.69
Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
France leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$12
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+111.3%+$79
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$87.37
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$250.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$325.43
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$689.33
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+138.1%+$29
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+34%+$12.7
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+81.4%+$35.9
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT+70.7%+$46.87
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+77.7%+$247.77
Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$26.45
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+79.2%+$48.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$26.76
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+25%+$4
All 22 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST2152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+303.2%+$75.2
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+30.2%+$34.75
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+78.5%+$131.74
Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+36.8%+$90.79
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$62.67
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$92.45
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Eagles vs. Billsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+53.8%+$52.5
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$29.15
Spread: Steelers (-5.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Patriots vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)backed Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$20.07
Packers vs. Cowboys: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.67
Ravens vs. Chiefsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.8
Commanders vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
Chargers vs. Giantsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.15
Chiefs vs. Giantsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Ravens vs. Billsbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.49
Buccaneers vs. Falconsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Cardinals vs. Saintsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$12
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$22.75
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$9
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30.68
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+73.9%+$84.97
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$85.35
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$122.25
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$14.95
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$112.9
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+46.9%+$69.42
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$18.9
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$50.79
Will Issa Tchiroma Bakary win the Cameroon Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.24
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$7
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$8.9
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.25
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.4
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+41.1%+$48.29
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-47.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.18
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+39.7%+$7.1
US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$36.75
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Epstein confirmed as foreign agent in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$26.95
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.75
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+93.2%+$9.65
US government shutdown by October 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$5.5
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Mexico in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon register the America Party in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$84.47
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.56
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will Trump say "God" 5+ times during his 4th of July remarks?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.75
Will Trump say "George Washington" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.1
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" during his 4th of July remarks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.5
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.3
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.5
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.13
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked VCU Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$14.13
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 135.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$11.9
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.77
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-18.5)backed North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+82.9%+$13.22
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+106.3%+$25.09
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-17.5)backed North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+117%+$114.52
Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)backed Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$87.92
Spread: West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5)backed West Virginia Mountaineers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$22.56
Florida Gators vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+88.3%+$25.36
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.6
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+60.7%+$192.35
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$73.45
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$255.1
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$138.35
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$65.55
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.75
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$55.65
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+26.4%+$20.9
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+29.5%+$56.87
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5.92
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$3.85
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$44.5
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$10.25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+25.9%+$12.35
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.25
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$135.33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+36%+$45
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$65.85
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.38
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT+46.7%+$20.83
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+50.3%+$68.65
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+168.5%+$250.98
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$16.5
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.7%+$18.8
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$63.25
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+70.4%+$47.05
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+32.4%+$22
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.54
Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$5.1
All 10 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+32.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+104.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+56.3%+$9
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+100%+$14.83
Bulls vs. Pacersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$18.25
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+84.7%+$21.41
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+61%+$36
All 5 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirierbacked Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+84.6%+$57.73
UFC 318: Costa vs. Kopylovbacked Kopylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.29
UFC 318: Ige vs. Pitbull backed Ige · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.5
All 3 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Sep 19, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+56%+$53.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+40%+$57.1
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.