Us Politics · resolved market
US forces in Venezuela by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6aa24fcc9f2729702dab1e43bf30e690657efc895a22af0e1d8626da7a3e895
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $262,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17a5…c36fbacked Yes | 4c | 29,070$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…9b48backed Yes | 1c | 19,183$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…c76fbacked Yes | 6c | 18,922$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 14,710$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…f4b1backed Yes | 5c | 11,494$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…1411backed Yes | 5c | 10,166$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b49…f2dfbacked Yes | 5c | 10,138$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…8063backed Yes | 7c | 4,303$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 4c | 1,933$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…f1a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…3738backed Yes | 5c | 1,046$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…70debacked Yes | 3c | 938.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 7c | 760.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…4dbfbacked Yes | 4c | 626.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 505$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 3c | 442.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…3b6cbacked Yes | 5c | 425.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…f051backed Yes | 5c | 408.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ba…1d3dbacked Yes | 7c | 370.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…c9e3backed Yes | 4c | 331.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…8f05backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e32…0dccbacked Yes | 8c | 263.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed Yes | 4c | 242.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…e135backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US forces in Venezuela by September 30?this page
- US forces in Venezuela by December 31?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US forces in Venezuela by November 30?No won
- US forces in Venezuela by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.