TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,255,182
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,175,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,255,182 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 855 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d05…6a81backed No2c59,907$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.2143212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No4c33,918$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.4142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15a9…ec4fbacked No0c32,380$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211225%3 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+1,142.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x59c7…df11backed No1c24,969$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3afa…d5b7backed No4c22,671$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.8119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38dd…44cfbacked No5c20,365$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed No1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200170%0 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x691f…877abacked No7c14,820$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc016…1ed0backed No1c10,507$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No25c10,489$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.37360%0 W · 36 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x2baf…70adbacked No1c10,392$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d79…89abbacked No3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+40.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fe8…2c91backed No8c10,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004238.1%16 W · 26 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed No15c9,897$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,448.485733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No18c9,379$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,716.5122627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No0c9,277$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.875071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed No20c8,743$1,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.5919531.8%62 W · 133 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…f147backed No4c8,638$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.913522.9%8 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick15cpaid-10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked Yes63c6,634$4,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,446.931376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0e39…d639backed No33c6,442$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No49c6,045$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.5715626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No8c6,018$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.8910528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No4c5,401$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.563141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a90…c61dbacked Yes53c5,314$2,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,511.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+102.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes79c5,210$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.594032.5%13 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9952…9cbabacked No37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8501770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+26.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No5c4,657$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.853717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c4,503$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.044625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes62c4,501$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.291758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No45c4,248$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.1338237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes54c4,079$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.5935355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No43c3,963$1,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.8817737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b49…1f54backed No36c3,947$1,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,420.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf041…dde5backed Yes63c3,872$2,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.632347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick55cpaid+93.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c3,845$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.734195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c4…4c8bbacked No11c3,700$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3919028.9%26 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed Yes47c3,573$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.923070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No51c3,517$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.8426423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6bf…5cadbacked No4c3,450$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.25812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd7…7061backed No43c3,226$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked No6c3,156$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+131.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes76c3,134$2,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.293250%16 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes50c3,025$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.5710227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad64…de75backed No5c3,000$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes53c3,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4208145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7661…208abacked Yes51c3,000$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,461.351442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-40.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22a9…db6ebacked No23c3,000$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.943148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed No18c2,730$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.046013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc2…0933backed Yes67c2,673$1,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.412055%11 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8931…0627backed No2c2,662$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.221154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick29cpaid+92.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No28c2,505$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.372352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+63.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed No8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002050%10 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd0f…a925backed Yes61c2,400$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.991844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No12c2,398$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.1250130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes55c2,302$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.6412744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5452…6f80backed Yes57c2,279$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes48c2,199$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.383545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…5826backed Yes76c2,156$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.136262.9%39 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…450abacked No5c2,091$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+138.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…bdf9backed No5c2,085$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.71241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…c1a5backed No5c2,078$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No27c2,023$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.6719449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed No2c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1404862.5%30 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.996439.1%25 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2086…8ef7backed No14c1,988$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.152352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes56c1,980$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.574242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f59…d19abacked Yes73c1,928$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.381060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c1,924$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes78c1,918$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.2867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No42c1,869$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.1218531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No45c1,776$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.5231649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked Yes60c1,776$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.1608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes46c1,746$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.76636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4c4…cfdabacked No9c1,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb427…a75cbacked Yes62c1,647$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No6c1,620$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2419739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked No40c1,532$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.961625%4 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked No38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x967b…cc39backed No37c1,456$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.041040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fda…8deabacked No14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No54c1,425$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.3231241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes50c1,416$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7082737%10 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7786…7914backed Yes50c1,378$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29ea…701ebacked No2c1,341$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.56392.6%1 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick9cpaid-92.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes51c1,324$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.982152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb464…1d98backed No8c1,300$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1043122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No39c1,294$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.4889617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe85c…ed6bbacked No2c1,291$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1151…c9abbacked No8c1,269$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid-8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes57c1,256$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.831936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes50c1,252$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6262737%10 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No37c1,200$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4473141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2675…5bf9backed No7c1,199$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807152.1%37 W · 34 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+62.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No2c1,162$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5c…1e71backed No40c1,133$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501450%7 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+106.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b35…2ec5backed No5c1,123$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8900…f01dbacked No7c1,120$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.823548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb9f…ee38backed No46c1,101$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.361258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefc5…247cbacked Yes50c1,080$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.