Middle East · resolved market
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc69f5f48827e331957acbcc2339eb3b15e27e32453b8e6f29b5de67474c986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,255,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,175,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,255,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 855 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed No | 2c | 59,907$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.21 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 33,918$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.41 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a9…ec4fbacked No | 0c | 32,380$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +1,142.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…df11backed No | 1c | 24,969$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…d5b7backed No | 4c | 22,671$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…44cfbacked No | 5c | 20,365$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed No | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…877abacked No | 7c | 14,820$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…1ed0backed No | 1c | 10,507$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 25c | 10,489$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.37 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…70adbacked No | 1c | 10,392$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…89abbacked No | 3c | 10,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed No | 8c | 10,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed No | 15c | 9,897$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.48 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 18c | 9,379$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.51 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 9,277$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 20c | 8,743$1,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,743.59 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed No | 4c | 8,638$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.91 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked Yes | 63c | 6,634$4,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.93 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e39…d639backed No | 33c | 6,442$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 49c | 6,045$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.57 | 156 | 26.9%42 W · 114 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 8c | 6,018$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.89 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 4c | 5,401$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.56 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a90…c61dbacked Yes | 53c | 5,314$2,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,511.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 79c | 5,210$4,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.59 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…9cbabacked No | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 5c | 4,657$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.85 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 4,503$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 62c | 4,501$2,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 45c | 4,248$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.13 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 54c | 4,079$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.59 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 43c | 3,963$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.88 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…1f54backed No | 36c | 3,947$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 63c | 3,872$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.63 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 3,845$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.73 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked No | 11c | 3,700$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…0b29backed Yes | 47c | 3,573$1,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.92 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 51c | 3,517$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.84 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…5cadbacked No | 4c | 3,450$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…7061backed No | 43c | 3,226$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked No | 6c | 3,156$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed Yes | 76c | 3,134$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 50c | 3,025$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.57 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…de75backed No | 5c | 3,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 53c | 3,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 51c | 3,000$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,461.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…db6ebacked No | 23c | 3,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.94 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed No | 18c | 2,730$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.04 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 67c | 2,673$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8931…0627backed No | 2c | 2,662$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked No | 28c | 2,505$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.37 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed Yes | 61c | 2,400$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 12c | 2,398$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.12 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 55c | 2,302$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.64 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…6f80backed Yes | 57c | 2,279$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 48c | 2,199$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.38 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 76c | 2,156$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.13 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…450abacked No | 5c | 2,091$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…bdf9backed No | 5c | 2,085$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…c1a5backed No | 5c | 2,078$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 27c | 2,023$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.67 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 2c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 14c | 1,988$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 56c | 1,980$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.57 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…d19abacked Yes | 73c | 1,928$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.38 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,924$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 78c | 1,918$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.28 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 42c | 1,869$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.12 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 45c | 1,776$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.52 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 60c | 1,776$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.1 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 46c | 1,746$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.7 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…cfdabacked No | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…a75cbacked Yes | 62c | 1,647$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 1,620$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked No | 40c | 1,532$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.96 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked No | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…cc39backed No | 37c | 1,456$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…8deabacked No | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 54c | 1,425$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.32 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,416$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed Yes | 50c | 1,378$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ea…701ebacked No | 2c | 1,341$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -92.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…9652backed Yes | 51c | 1,324$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed No | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 39c | 1,294$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.48 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked No | 2c | 1,291$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…c9abbacked No | 8c | 1,269$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,256$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 50c | 1,252$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce66…cc64backed No | 37c | 1,200$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 7c | 1,199$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 2c | 1,162$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…1e71backed No | 40c | 1,133$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…2ec5backed No | 5c | 1,123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 7c | 1,120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed No | 46c | 1,101$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc5…247cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,080$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.