TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8900…f01d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst World Politics at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+48%+$5.81
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+209.9%+$38.2
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.82
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.49
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$22.33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.95
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.46
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$27.73
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.69
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+137.3%+$31.41
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+93.6%+$20.06
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+140.3%+$18.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.61
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.92
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.06
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$18.26
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+136.6%+$76.14
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$38.43
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.37
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.37
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.08
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$21.1
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+170.7%+$37.8
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$17.78
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$19.11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$15.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+85.3%+$48.15
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+102%+$30.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.36
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$31.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.98
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+217.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+217.3%+$33.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+62.3%+$15.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.