Middle East · resolved market
US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98c1246f7cfc5c63ba30e7d71ce93144f56e96e374dcb0bbe36d022df8cd89e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 80c | 10,353$8,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.12 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 11c | 8,147$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.47 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 9c | 7,878$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.74 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 54c | 7,676$4,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,172.94 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 31c | 7,329$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,307.59 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 5,654$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.63 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 23c | 5,520$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.11 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 4,520$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.15 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 30c | 4,473$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.02 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 15c | 3,930$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.11 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 30c | 3,460$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.74 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 8c | 3,402$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 63c | 3,330$2,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.17 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 9c | 3,131$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 3,131$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.33 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,552$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8129…5f30backed Yes | 5c | 2,224$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 73c | 2,170$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.89 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 21c | 2,087$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.62 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,869$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e13…a801backed Yes | 16c | 1,814$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…a31ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,800$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 49c | 1,748$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.59 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes | 18c | 1,649$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.84 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 24c | 1,645$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.32 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 34c | 1,559$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.22 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 15c | 1,530$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.05 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 48c | 1,517$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.23 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 33c | 1,512$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.64 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 60c | 1,432$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.45 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 1,404$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 12c | 1,400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 41c | 1,320$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.86 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 56c | 1,236$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.76 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,167$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 13c | 1,165$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 7c | 1,157$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 18c | 1,149$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 38c | 1,123$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd25e…f458backed Yes | 38c | 1,066$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fd…4373backed No | 77c | 1,013$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…4c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 999.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 27c | 989.86$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.6 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 20c | 987.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 68c | 984.23$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.55 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 27c | 930.51$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.43 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 64c | 919.16$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.24 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 916$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 68c | 901.75$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.56 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 52c | 899.98$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.99 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 75c | 856.32$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.07 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 34c | 850.12$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…7211backed Yes | 6c | 842.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 832$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 66c | 799.99$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 3c | 774.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes | 9c | 774.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 6c | 759.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed No | 72c | 749.99$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed Yes | 27c | 748.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed Yes | 34c | 674.55$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.86 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…628abacked Yes | 39c | 672.15$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 44c | 667.08$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.86 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes | 33c | 662.5$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.12 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 658.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 658.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ec…6452backed Yes | 31c | 650.47$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 63c | 626.44$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.78 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…d8b9backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 69c | 600$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 17c | 513.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.38 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 28c | 500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 78c | 499.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 32c | 499.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…b584backed Yes | 5c | 495.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 11c | 494.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 478.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 19c | 471.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 34c | 469.25$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 21c | 469.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.15 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 5c | 460.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 41c | 455.03$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 449$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…c560backed Yes | 4c | 446.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed Yes | 30c | 432.71$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed No | 70c | 427.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…84a5backed Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…cc34backed Yes | 5c | 418.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +268.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 5c | 410$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…0109backed Yes | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 69c | 379.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes | 23c | 374.8$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 372.46$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…f437backed Yes | 3c | 362.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 21c | 360$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f4…b92bbacked No | 57c | 346.86$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?this page
- US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.