TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$245,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8597…daeebacked No80c10,353$8,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,094.128359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes11c8,147$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$930.4721525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes9c7,878$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.7448923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a8…445cbacked Yes54c7,676$4,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,172.943420.6%7 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes31c7,329$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.5940939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c5,654$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.632217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes23c5,520$1,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.119217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5acd…08fabacked Yes42c4,520$1,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.156939.1%27 W · 42 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes30c4,473$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.0211222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes15c3,930$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.119825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes30c3,460$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.7428943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed Yes8c3,402$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.74520%9 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid+91.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No63c3,330$2,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.1751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes9c3,131$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.915232.9%50 W · 102 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+19.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes22c3,131$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.337012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked Yes9c2,552$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21814227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8129…5f30backed Yes5c2,224$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.93244.2%1 W · 23 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed No73c2,170$1,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.8910737.4%40 W · 67 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes21c2,087$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.629647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes4c1,869$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.831199.2%11 W · 108 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e13…a801backed Yes16c1,814$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.161136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420f…a31ebacked Yes37c1,800$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.82846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed No49c1,748$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.5913823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd71…d70dbacked Yes30c1,667$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003253.1%17 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick62cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes18c1,649$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.847042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes24c1,645$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.3244224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Yes34c1,559$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.2210645.3%48 W · 58 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes15c1,530$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.0550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No48c1,517$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.2316041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes33c1,512$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.643860.5%23 W · 15 L+6.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+51.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked No60c1,432$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.454843.8%21 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c1,404$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.647135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes12c1,400$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16732243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes41c1,320$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.864540%18 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No56c1,236$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.7615338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes6c1,167$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5715…1616backed Yes13c1,165$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011527%31 W · 84 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c7a…6875backed Yes7c1,157$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.577520%15 W · 60 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes18c1,149$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9910132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaca4…f852backed Yes38c1,123$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.542927.6%8 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd25e…f458backed Yes38c1,066$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed No77c1,013$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.42050%10 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes16c1,000$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6819930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdaf…4c3fbacked Yes10c999.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.98633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked No27c989.86$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.616553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes20c987.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.111811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No68c984.23$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.557648.7%37 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes27c930.51$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4317449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No64c919.16$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.2425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes5c916$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4312223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe879…6d22backed No68c901.75$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.566653%35 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No52c899.98$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.9922627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No75c856.32$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.0725843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes34c850.12$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.286952.2%36 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+21.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes6c842.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.954814.6%7 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No68c832$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.6521751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No66c799.99$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2759552.6%50 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes3c774.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcf…ba89backed Yes9c774.58$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed Yes6c759.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.268040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed No72c749.99$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2113100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+96.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0924backed Yes27c748.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5669…e058backed Yes34c674.55$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.862055%11 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x971c…628abacked Yes39c672.15$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes44c667.08$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.8627643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked Yes33c662.5$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1211856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c658.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.96721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c658.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.831,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13ec…6452backed Yes31c650.47$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.12922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-70.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed No63c626.44$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.7811833.9%40 W · 78 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x696f…d8b9backed Yes8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-81.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No69c600$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18828734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes17c513.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.386942%29 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18513746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes28c500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.948219.5%16 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed No78c499.98$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1127548%36 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes32c499.8$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.113544.4%60 W · 75 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb719…b584backed Yes5c495.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes11c494.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8318338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c478.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.63400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Yes19c471.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.395244.2%23 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes34c469.25$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.6118639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes21c469.03$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.15629.7%6 W · 56 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes5c460.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9718531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd47…805abacked Yes41c455.03$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1853666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c449$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4542311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31a…c560backed Yes4c446.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4170%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes30c432.71$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.834936.7%18 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63e3…f341backed No70c427.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.7710549.5%52 W · 53 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc20…84a5backed Yes5c425.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x423a…cc34backed Yes5c418.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201520%3 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+268.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7397…1968backed Yes5c410$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14734%16 W · 31 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes26c399.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10411551.3%59 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No69c379.99$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.18744.8%39 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+101.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c31…b74fbacked Yes23c374.8$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.81947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed No77c372.46$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3218246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04fa…f437backed Yes3c362.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.832123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc327…31f5backed Yes21c360$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.49930.3%30 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f4…b92bbacked No57c346.86$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.361154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.