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Middle East · resolved market

US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,160
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$307,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,160 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes59c6,194$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.1738237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes23c4,500$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.1418338.3%70 W · 113 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes57c4,266$2,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,442.422821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec5…65a8backed No66c3,965$2,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,341.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd576…d5e3backed Yes73c3,213$2,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,350.824337.2%16 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ed…9a89backed Yes31c2,619$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.79250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62bd…3dfbbacked Yes7c2,410$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-66%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed Yes38c2,350$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.1219449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No37c2,236$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.3536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2501…7e28backed No53c2,221$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.982475%18 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No27c2,108$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.147334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No45c2,018$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1029154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No36c2,000$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.2540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d3…c513backed Yes2c1,618$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba3…1274backed Yes3c1,617$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a19…8f5bbacked Yes59c1,617$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.61735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes32c1,548$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.955812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed No66c1,489$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.5910558.1%61 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No31c1,300$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No34c1,286$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.210141.6%42 W · 59 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+56.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes60c1,263$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.929441.5%39 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No79c1,258$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9116638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb796…588cbacked Yes2c1,251$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.58812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No45c1,172$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.986558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked No50c1,125$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.510435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes55c1,102$603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.5426138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes54c1,085$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5866144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked No47c1,041$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.0311357.5%65 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5502931%9 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c948.64$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.152217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab6a…3319backed No40c903.85$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.311861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes29c871.84$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.2558927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked No24c833.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.5213650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No49c800$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41220235.6%72 W · 130 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa5…888fbacked No47c780.77$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.141060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes31c772.57$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0820035.5%71 W · 129 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc22e…54ebbacked Yes63c762.02$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.81020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No40c759.01$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.016955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No43c755.08$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.0927047.8%129 W · 141 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4509257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes32c713.71$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes15c699.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.992642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes64c622.68$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-50.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4461…4485backed Yes33c602.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+152.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd85b…4807backed Yes50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No25c600$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45020247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d9…28bfbacked No77c600$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20e8…a4a1backed No51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2945100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc342…2d48backed Yes10c592.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f0a…3b4bbacked Yes17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002850%14 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes3c582$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c578.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.354769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Yes45c574.84$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.172934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes9c548.74$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.049827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No38c526.32$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.3217755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes18c524.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0436626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c509.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.363588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48ee…008cbacked Yes14c500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010023%23 W · 77 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb81…24f9backed No46c500$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes63c499.99$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.993040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes12c499.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes12c464.23$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5928827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes36c440$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9910464.4%67 W · 37 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9eec…9a8cbacked No56c430.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.813943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24be…183ebacked Yes47c424.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa8f…b920backed Yes60c417.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes33c402.32$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.310234.3%35 W · 67 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1962540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadc…d8efbacked No35c400$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.86636.4%24 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fd8…0d38backed No41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2364057.5%23 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…5bc1backed No52c393.81$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.574259.5%25 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No37c387.77$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.9829653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed No43c367.83$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.661968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked No41c360$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.43756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3a9…bfc4backed Yes50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No49c340.15$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3720749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x778c…a4b4backed Yes59c337.78$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-77.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed No42c331.9$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.393857.9%22 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No24c320$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.919056.3%107 W · 83 L+16.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No40c309.68$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.3114036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No32c308.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.893672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No71c300$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8616961.5%104 W · 65 L+12.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6db6…43b2backed Yes64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed No35c300$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3915953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked Yes60c298.52$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.11742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes67c296.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb69c…2a0dbacked Yes57c296.27$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd6…9897backed No40c289.9$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.843050%15 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d42…8fbbbacked No39c285$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.5511856.8%67 W · 51 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No46c274$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14917449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5078…00e9backed Yes26c271.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.331540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2455…a70fbacked Yes4c269.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa98…af7fbacked No48c266.16$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes50c260$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13034234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7897…4239backed No39c259.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c7…0e95backed No40c252.51$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.513925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No38c250$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1558135.8%29 W · 52 L+13.6wins+0.17per pick19cpaid+84.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3875…1fd2backed Yes64c250$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes59c246.28$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.828721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.