Token Launches · resolved market
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb97711083adb39b218473a5b5c564944e0841a3cb566f5d3fe1bbddd7e5d90a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 53c | 2,797$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,052$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,443$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.36 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 1,200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…0cebbacked Yes | 35c | 1,174$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 3c | 1,154$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…46f6backed No | 55c | 1,149$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 42c | 1,013$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 45c | 888.9$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.07 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes | 44c | 883.54$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 49c | 816.67$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.67 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 47c | 736.06$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.38 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 54c | 656.31$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.03 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 558.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 52c | 459.99$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.47 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…fe9ebacked Yes | 44c | 450$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 43c | 447.26$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 437.52$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.87 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…ea99backed No | 49c | 419.57$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 48c | 356.77$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.81 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 57c | 346.67$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked No | 45c | 319.73$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 48c | 275.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 5c | 263$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 63c | 238$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 51c | 218$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 14c | 211.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…e75dbacked No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c9…d473backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…076ebacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…cfe0backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 47c | 175.59$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 171.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…5ff5backed No | 53c | 151.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked No | 50c | 148.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…5a2dbacked Yes | 50c | 148.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 46c | 145.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 35c | 128.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked Yes | 54c | 104.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 21c | 100.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…cd17backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…b56cbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e2d2backed No | 80c | 99.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 45c | 94.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 49c | 75.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 63c | 73.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…7aa3backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…c131backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed Yes | 37c | 56.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 63c | 49.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 48.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 32c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a01…3053backed Yes | 24c | 42.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 44c | 42.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 47c | 39.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 36.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked Yes | 42c | 30.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…01b9backed Yes | 79c | 23.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf4…b7a7backed No | 63c | 17.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 13.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.