Token Launches · resolved market
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8895707ed4f70e213b9dfb2b30b95e1820168ce716b53fa1fee613f839c877e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 0c | 15,125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c2…a8c7backed No | 31c | 12,190$3,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,785.18 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 79c | 4,623$3,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.97 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d6…669bbacked Yes | 72c | 4,500$3,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…0cebbacked Yes | 63c | 3,779$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked No | 32c | 2,781$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 74c | 2,379$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,327$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 17c | 2,184$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 73c | 2,171$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,646$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.36 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf079…874dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,283$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,199$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 19c | 1,150$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 23c | 960.37$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…ca50backed No | 23c | 933.12$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed No | 33c | 929.81$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed Yes | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…8e1abacked Yes | 76c | 605.44$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 24c | 551.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.51 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 13c | 470.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…ce91backed Yes | 72c | 301.02$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…ea99backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…187fbacked Yes | 65c | 232.34$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 80c | 231.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc1…ea30backed Yes | 57c | 220$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…3840backed Yes | 74c | 202.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…cfe0backed Yes | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 40c | 199.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed No | 30c | 196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 188.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 34c | 145$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 110.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 109.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 13c | 103.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x295e…8dfdbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee9…5a2dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 25c | 83.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd6…b986backed No | 42c | 76.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 32c | 76.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…ec45backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 69c | 68.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…dae2backed No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…320cbacked Yes | 77c | 58.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 20c | 50.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e2d2backed No | 41c | 45.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…51c1backed Yes | 66c | 37.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0f…b11dbacked Yes | 50c | 37.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…2c15backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931a…29e5backed Yes | 75c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 70c | 24.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 65c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…7e2cbacked Yes | 60c | 19.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…d6f6backed Yes | 78c | 19.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 77c | 16.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.