Token Launches · resolved market
Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa22e8545ef8037416035dca24f9ea07e7be0485213315b264eecb6cc10a51a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe252…5714backed Yes | 21c | 2,633$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 13c | 2,239$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.44 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9070…e32cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,990$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 26c | 701.94$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 22c | 537.8$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 78c | 500$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.91 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked No | 79c | 481.17$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 24c | 468.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…e259backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 325.47$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…4481backed Yes | 22c | 310.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 76c | 309.94$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 13c | 282$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 271.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 7c | 256.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 80c | 237.72$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 18c | 231.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed No | 80c | 231$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 17c | 217.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc4…b135backed No | 73c | 190$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 22c | 84.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 15c | 71.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…5d9cbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 18c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4330…c284backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 70c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 35c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 65c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arcium FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Arcium FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Arcium FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.