TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd0e3…01b9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 58 out of 100; worst Champions League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Tweets — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$13
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$15.21
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$8.11
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$20.81
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$14.81
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$11.57
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$5
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+65.4%+$24.13
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$10.66
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21.95
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+119.3%+$27.2
All 12 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-47.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+87.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+38%+$7.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.16
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.