Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42973552f8bcfc9269fba8492766f2c20a22243cbba154cf695acaff88ec96c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,734,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,265,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,734,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 647 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f83…6ceebacked No | 0c | 1,944,718$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf92…32e6backed No | 0c | 1,239,833$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…8f75backed No | 1c | 1,080,572$6,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,401.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 999,993$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…cfafbacked No | 0c | 607,000$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 1c | 598,789$4,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,171.36 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed No | 0c | 572,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…e999backed No | 0c | 567,549$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…a190backed No | 0c | 507,292$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…d509backed No | 0c | 421,333$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 0c | 416,316$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.32 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd495…c229backed No | 0c | 360,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177c…7d2cbacked No | 0c | 266,024$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…05a6backed No | 0c | 200,899$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…3e98backed No | 0c | 173,590$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…9c9dbacked No | 0c | 154,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…909fbacked No | 0c | 147,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75de…0f0abacked No | 0c | 128,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…cf05backed No | 0c | 121,552$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 119,300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…38dcbacked No | 0c | 111,833$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 1c | 104,645$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.16 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…68a2backed No | 0c | 103,100$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…a78cbacked No | 0c | 102,539$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…d59fbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b96…6226backed No | 0c | 96,280$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 88,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2943…295bbacked No | 0c | 87,950$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 84,990$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked No | 0c | 73,200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…b0f8backed No | 0c | 70,346$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfa…1788backed No | 0c | 63,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7173…ea1ebacked No | 0c | 60,460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4907…cdc2backed No | 1c | 55,551$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.51 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…6fb1backed No | 0c | 54,806$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…347fbacked No | 0c | 53,672$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked No | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd25f…0973backed No | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc62…6307backed No | 1c | 49,200$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 2c | 47,506$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.5 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…e0d5backed No | 0c | 47,135$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 1cpaid | +3,778.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…5a20backed No | 0c | 47,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…46c3backed No | 0c | 46,020$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28c…cdf8backed No | 0c | 45,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…f392backed No | 0c | 44,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…663abacked No | 1c | 41,123$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca7…4202backed No | 0c | 40,380$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1896backed No | 0c | 37,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 63c | 35,115$22,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,093.03 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf495…63eebacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c6…56a6backed No | 0c | 33,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x514a…c938backed No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +681.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…25eebacked No | 0c | 32,030$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed No | 0c | 31,664$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…83c7backed No | 0c | 29,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…d902backed No | 0c | 27,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…9796backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…839abacked No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 23,650$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.15 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2443…94a9backed No | 0c | 23,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7777…d86fbacked No | 0c | 22,300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…8c51backed No | 0c | 21,992$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…7824backed No | 0c | 21,213$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…517dbacked No | 3c | 20,797$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…f2c8backed No | 1c | 20,503$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…2f6ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…631ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…e5cebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36e…273dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 52c | 19,143$9,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,216.7 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…f600backed No | 0c | 18,879$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…d932backed No | 0c | 18,500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +409.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170a…74ccbacked No | 0c | 18,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked No | 0c | 17,395$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…695cbacked No | 0c | 17,080$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b8…5fa8backed No | 0c | 17,080$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 6c | 16,752$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.55 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…a5bbbacked No | 0c | 16,018$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7fb4backed No | 0c | 16,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c5…6cd7backed No | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…d849backed No | 0c | 15,215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…8594backed No | 0c | 15,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 0c | 15,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d4…8741backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb629…aa8dbacked No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…ae93backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 42c | 15,000$6,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,370.94 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 47c | 14,699$6,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,876.81 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…3e09backed No | 0c | 14,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…9b90backed No | 64c | 13,952$8,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,868.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 19c | 13,820$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.52 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 57c | 13,600$7,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,912 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed No | 0c | 12,775$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3224…56b7backed No | 0c | 12,710$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e0…bcd2backed No | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?this page
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.