Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22e576a6f53d8d2b7a0939ac39ce015671564303e2496158c7b228daa6d5d903
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 15c | 3,148$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.64 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 3c | 2,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 19c | 999.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 21c | 999.86$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 17c | 852.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.57 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 567.41$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 442.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked Yes | 21c | 399.06$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…04edbacked Yes | 19c | 392.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 32c | 316.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 303.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 15c | 296.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 13c | 274.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 236.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 213.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 17c | 201.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…efffbacked Yes | 19c | 170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 79c | 141.96$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 133.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…5143backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 122$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 18c | 121.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 113.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…6d86backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…1d6dbacked Yes | 14c | 82.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 19c | 75.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…8055backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9986…27aebacked Yes | 20c | 54.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 78c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6f…4f5ebacked No | 80c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?this page
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.