Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb735a1a4f3e5fa31332c969647ee2828e4afb81bd70a2a16c82c3bc2b2084e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 54c | 8,592$4,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,942.07 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 23c | 8,364$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.64 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 56c | 5,681$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 15c | 5,067$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.21 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 58c | 4,252$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.17 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 64c | 3,425$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.99 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 4c | 3,100$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 73c | 2,740$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.06 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…4c49backed No | 33c | 2,700$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 53c | 2,401$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.62 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 29c | 2,215$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.55 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 36c | 2,051$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.64 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 61c | 1,737$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.59 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 76c | 1,697$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.55 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 1,645$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.58 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 1,600$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 57c | 1,576$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.06 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 63c | 1,450$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.5 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 1,200$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 9c | 1,099$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 35c | 1,070$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.12 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 68c | 1,046$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.23 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 36c | 1,025$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.79 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed No | 41c | 1,016$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.64 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 30c | 999.99$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.43 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 7c | 934.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 16c | 869.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 68c | 867.55$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.71 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 22c | 863.24$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.55 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d0…2010backed No | 57c | 844.88$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 25c | 832.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 14c | 691.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…637bbacked Yes | 73c | 685.51$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 24c | 679.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.24 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 23c | 670$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.35 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7818…d185backed No | 28c | 670$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.3 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…e459backed No | 42c | 664.38$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed No | 22c | 598.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 74c | 578.12$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 17c | 570.72$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.56 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85a…96e6backed Yes | 67c | 550$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 27c | 547.33$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e37…5ad7backed No | 45c | 527.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…addbbacked No | 51c | 509.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 24c | 497.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed No | 28c | 465.45$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…44c9backed No | 42c | 453.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…3e82backed Yes | 67c | 450$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 42c | 448.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.39 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Yes | 73c | 409.36$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 36c | 408.02$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.95 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 61c | 400.18$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.1 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbed8…3705backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 38c | 399.98$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed No | 38c | 383.53$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.57 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 52c | 370.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd312…7236backed No | 55c | 366.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed Yes | 74c | 364.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca97…5409backed No | 25c | 352.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.23 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…d811backed Yes | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ad…519fbacked Yes | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161e…d5d0backed No | 58c | 344.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 30c | 333.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d12…c8a6backed No | 58c | 325.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 66c | 320.41$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.53 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2114…1037backed No | 47c | 318.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…659abacked No | 48c | 306$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…442bbacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…eccdbacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed Yes | 66c | 290.68$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 288.87$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 51c | 287.23$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Yes | 59c | 260$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…b80fbacked No | 21c | 249.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 42c | 249.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 241.63$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed No | 21c | 240.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…3bccbacked No | 39c | 232.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 34c | 205.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 22c | 200.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 59c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b94…c618backed No | 32c | 199.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 66c | 199.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa132…c95ebacked No | 53c | 189.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 61c | 189.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed No | 11c | 187$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…9b0dbacked No | 36c | 186.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes | 73c | 182.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 45c | 182.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 55c | 179.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 17c | 175.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 57c | 175$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked No | 58c | 173.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…895dbacked No | 23c | 155.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?this page
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Yes won
- Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.