TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,380

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes10c1,578$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.336113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef7…85ecbacked No9c1,338$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.26955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+62.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes32c884.96$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.7457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No34c800.08$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.6812232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No73c606.77$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.061931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes38c535.6$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.2724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No16c473.3$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7910510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes7c400$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37242719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes66c384.48$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.5722926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fda…8858backed Yes61c337.11$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.25450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes50c299.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.13225%8 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes72c294.18$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6641230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes38c276.92$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.8650319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes5c271.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.53258%2 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick3cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c264.73$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.852,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes60c261.18$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.8242628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes9c258.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.855535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Yes76c256.87$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.23450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked No11c245.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes73c240.31$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.83268.8%22 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes13c233.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2662539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73dc…70b2backed Yes61c219.26$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No47c217.64$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0426461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c215.37$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0779735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes8c179.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.91,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes27c172.84$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.59213%12 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…1096backed Yes25c150.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1131827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked No72c150$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.15837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No69c150$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-79.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes65c148.47$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.972548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes66c146.82$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5115430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes18c143.2$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.578320.5%17 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked No14c139.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No14c131.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0128723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0f3d…d6a5backed Yes61c127.72$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes27c125.93$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4616023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9955…85afbacked Yes30c124.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2318357.9%106 W · 77 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e3…9188backed No73c122.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5f…07febacked Yes80c122.7$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No60c121.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3324932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes77c112.16$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.99330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes31c107.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2619527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Yes22c102.53$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.213038.5%50 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes33c100.09$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9910840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.820532.7%67 W · 138 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes67c91.2$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes66c88.48$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.223542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes59c83.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.631154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+109.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x117d…156cbacked Yes58c83.02$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No60c81.87$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.993063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c79.78$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5237830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes63c76.23$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.085635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x723e…083ebacked No21c72.17$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.941921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No17c67.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.64506%3 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9439…9d6fbacked Yes73c66.86$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.236344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…8a8dbacked Yes29c63.64$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.062313%3 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0074…075fbacked Yes79c61.01$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes18c60.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9436018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No59c59.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.595040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No66c58.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.32420.8%5 W · 19 L-7.3wins-0.30per pick51cpaid-66.3%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed Yes61c55.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6512745.7%58 W · 69 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No47c52.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.761507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eb8…b468backed Yes56c51.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.462142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked No73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes68c47.23$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes28c45.81$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7710048%48 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d5…6b9abacked No25c45.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No57c44.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes67c42.43$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8214575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3240719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes74c39.34$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.111747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cd…aa50backed Yes55c38.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+29.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7053…25e4backed No31c37.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes67c35.26$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6413031.5%41 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9a…4373backed Yes64c34.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.492532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e3…01b9backed Yes56c34.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.211283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x874b…4af0backed No62c32.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes60c31.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7910024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37a…bc60backed Yes62c30.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.742839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4068backed Yes47c29.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c61…f58bbacked No37c28.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.373627.8%10 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c26.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6599619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3654…b243backed Yes64c19.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed No75c19.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.262951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No79c17.68$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9833670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.