TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,814

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,518 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c1,687$278 inLost-$278.142,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c1,096$16 inLost-$15.565535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c554.16$100 inLost-$99.7537830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes4c490.93$18 inLost-$18.037915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x213a…c4d8backed Yes4c427.12$15 inLost-$15.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes17c200$34 inLost-$341330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes23c176.31$41 inLost-$41.162330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes22c150$33 inLost-$335040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes32c99.95$32 inLost-$31.8444227.4%121 W · 321 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c99$17 inLost-$16.8379735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes12c95.4$11 inLost-$11.4516023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes27c84.09$23 inLost-$22.836616.7%11 W · 55 L-14.0wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes16c80$13 inLost-$12.83756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No73c69.77$51 inWon+$19.1259225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes27c67.94$18 inLost-$18.3432016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e4…8171backed Yes20c55.2$11 inLost-$11.041338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+43.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3706…9462backed Yes26c52.83$14 inLost-$13.74922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ebe…408ebacked Yes61c46.01$28 inLost-$27.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes28c36.14$10 inLost-$10.324732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2f7…1708backed Yes33c33.28$11 inLost-$10.983342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No35c30$11 inWon+$19.526461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No73c27.24$20 inWon+$7.363971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb79…a9a5backed No73c15.91$12 inWon+$4.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.