TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,678 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes12c841.8$98 inLost-$97.736113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No67c839.1$562 inWon+$276.6462539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd614…d4febacked Yes32c600$192 inLost-$1925930.5%18 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c538.21$111 inLost-$111.332,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes20c475.04$94 inLost-$93.9624732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes22c400$86 inLost-$8629610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a8…28d0backed Yes3c350.33$12 inLost-$11.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes6c227.78$13 inLost-$12.699330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes19c198.3$37 inLost-$36.741457.6%11 W · 134 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes10c173.92$17 inLost-$16.737915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes7c159.66$11 inLost-$10.8313323.3%31 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes18c150$27 inLost-$275040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes30c128.92$39 inLost-$38.861330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c124.23$37 inLost-$36.5342628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes34c93.4$32 inLost-$31.7616532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed Yes35c92.59$32 inLost-$31.9619527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes30c80$24 inLost-$243756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c39…6abcbacked Yes30c80$24 inLost-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf518…303abacked Yes28c77.35$22 inLost-$21.7580%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes27c70$19 inLost-$18.946616.7%11 W · 55 L-14.0wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed No70c67.82$47 inWon+$20.3533670.2%236 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x951a…6866backed Yes21c49.99$10 inLost-$10.53218.8%6 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+97%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9349…0486backed Yes30c47.59$14 inLost-$14.281533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed No68c27.9$19 inWon+$8.932951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e75…305ebacked No66c20$13 inWon+$6.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No69c19$13 inWon+$5.893971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.