TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,471
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,471 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes6c2,636$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.9436113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes61c2,099$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,283.7662539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes42c1,541$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.6212232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes10c983.39$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.210824.1%26 W · 82 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1849…137ebacked Yes24c918.05$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.392642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes25c881.16$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.3457222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked No69c698.32$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc5…4626backed Yes59c643.24$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x708e…d03fbacked Yes14c621.77$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.563438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes17c618.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.891189.3%11 W · 107 L-0.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes43c580.38$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.61507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No69c543.93$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.442,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes69c533.11$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8441230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2626…b763backed Yes19c529.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc972…d37ebacked No51c502.75$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes6c485.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1729.7%7 W · 65 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c474.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8922926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes5c459.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.575598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes69c400$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.836018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No61c399.17$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2350319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe447…f604backed Yes70c380.03$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes70c285.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a46…196cbacked No30c280.48$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No58c280.34$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.226461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…4cc9backed No38c271.02$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3819527.7%54 W · 141 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked No31c267.23$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.45819%11 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes22c263.63$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3816023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69c9…3b29backed Yes64c258.92$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.442548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fda…8858backed Yes44c248.48$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes56c220.79$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8524732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c206.47$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9179735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes36c199.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8442628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x29e4…16a6backed Yes49c199.21$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.22633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7155…eaf8backed Yes7c184.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c182.71$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2499619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No72c179.59$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.823154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes16c165.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8738010%38 W · 342 L+0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes9c162.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.213119.1%25 W · 106 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes7c151.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.091,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cb…3cd6backed No31c144.35$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1710024%24 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed No68c142.72$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes14c137.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5211421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes18c125.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.185635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes11c116.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0727820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe08f…cbf6backed Yes9c113.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.111564.3%74 W · 41 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.21330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c98.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8328723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4f62…90a2backed No21c93.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.561827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c86.46$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5439518.7%74 W · 321 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes16c86.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.573542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c09…cdf1backed Yes71c68.34$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.81250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c67.87$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7724932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x503d…04a5backed No58c66.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No29c64.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.918915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No69c61.65$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9414575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…0432backed No31c60.06$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.445236.5%19 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4f5…426ebacked No54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d09…1507backed Yes47c50.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6719933.2%66 W · 133 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb941…1619backed Yes73c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.553534.3%12 W · 23 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes71c49.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.54837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9b0…aea0backed Yes29c49.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb8…b468backed No65c46.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.132142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes25c46.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6810048%48 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes52c45.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6213031.5%41 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes61c44.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3211430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes68c43.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes26c42.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d14…347ebacked Yes72c40.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.43971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07f2…ee29backed Yes71c33.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-48.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes59c30.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.765040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0e…4068backed Yes52c29.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes52c27.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2815430.5%47 W · 107 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd064…2704backed No64c27.41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfb…f1b8backed No63c25.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes65c24.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5813259.8%79 W · 53 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x981b…c11cbacked No68c22.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75538.2%21 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8c…83c9backed No78c21.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes62c20.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.722755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9505…5110backed Yes69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed Yes73c19.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+85.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes70c15.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+344.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.