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Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,361
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,361 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes3c1,245$33 inLost-$32.7236113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c625.66$98 inLost-$97.792,58913.1%340 W · 2,249 L+4.5wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No62c487.95$304 inWon+$183.8612232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x165e…d94dbacked Yes18c438.12$80 inLost-$79.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes12c299.99$36 inLost-$36.329610.5%31 W · 265 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c271.78$102 inLost-$102.1939330.3%119 W · 274 L-20.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb247…81aabacked Yes38c251.42$94 inLost-$94.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca71…cf3ebacked Yes37c138.25$51 inLost-$51.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes38c134.42$51 inLost-$50.661507.3%11 W · 139 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe991…9df3backed Yes35c133.61$47 inLost-$46.7530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes14c110.28$15 inLost-$157915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes45c110$49 inLost-$49.26616.7%11 W · 55 L-14.0wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x974b…7c8fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No63c100$63 inWon+$37.542728.1%120 W · 307 L-38.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ebe…287cbacked Yes36c88.78$32 inLost-$31.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961c…a310backed Yes37c75.97$28 inLost-$28.11650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255c…16dfbacked Yes37c63.19$23 inLost-$23.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes32c58.93$19 inLost-$18.631457.6%11 W · 134 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0757…6daebacked Yes35c53.26$19 inLost-$18.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+85.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed Yes38c53$20 inLost-$20.093756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No63c48.53$31 inWon+$186347.6%30 W · 33 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes38c38.18$14 inLost-$14.43447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b2…1497backed Yes39c34.94$14 inLost-$13.81060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e32…86e9backed Yes38c28.63$11 inLost-$10.8840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No63c27.91$17 inWon+$10.473971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.