TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,351
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,351 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1abc…2093backed Yes0c4,331$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.084829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c3,404$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.111,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick2cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes11c2,417$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7836113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…cecdbacked Yes2c2,250$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.11442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes1c1,820$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.631438.4%12 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f3d…d6a5backed Yes3c1,685$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes9c1,339$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.982,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes2c1,316$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes3c1,203$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6912114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes4c963.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.299919.2%19 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…6071backed Yes45c847.97$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.6724732.4%80 W · 167 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes2c800.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes2c738.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.645588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes3c586.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9817818.5%33 W · 145 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked Yes3c585.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.365714%8 W · 49 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes3c573.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0842719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No57c479.69$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9562539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes3c468.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.516023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes43c350$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.540%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked No69c266.93$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9959225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes25c259.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.950319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes12c182.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4110840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89cc…394dbacked Yes17c175.43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.615635.7%20 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c150.01$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3651845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c145.34$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6426461.7%163 W · 101 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb5…7588backed Yes17c143.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9a…4373backed Yes12c109.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.692532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+92%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2942628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes13c95.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3124932.9%82 W · 167 L-33.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-46.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked No57c86.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.127820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa945…110fbacked Yes33c81.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…d6edbacked Yes45c69.45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.184440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No72c69.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6911430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No62c60.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.083971.8%28 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes31c47.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.610048%48 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes44c42.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8817824.7%44 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ddd…aea9backed Yes45c42.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72cd…ba23backed No56c39.16$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No79c36.52$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.751018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes32c33.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.843542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.914575.9%110 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa920…a07abacked No58c24.61$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.243438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+60.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No74c23.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.183158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.