TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa37a…bc60

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT2839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.13
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.84
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.79
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+121.5%+$75.61
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$41.97
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$29.56
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.72
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.31
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$16.29
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.68
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.59
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.08
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.12
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.97
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+131.9%+$25.71
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.29
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.77
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+61%+$11.74
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.29
Will White House post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+134.4%+$75.99
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.88
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+57.1%+$11
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$56.04
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.97
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.68
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+33%+$89.77
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$35.44
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$5.71
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$45.5
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.63
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.2
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+210.6%+$66.97
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.09
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$10.55
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.5
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.85
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.04
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.51
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+72%+$14.2
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.59
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491.7%+$491.72
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Mexico vs. Ecuador end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$27.69
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+197.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.89
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+220.9%+$825.87
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$37.14
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+2,930.3%+$563.31
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.35
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+98.8%+$14.31
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
All 16 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.