Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b95f451a4b742ea484e46ab9655684678ed0815d2143054e1572870bf96c236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 75c | 1,281$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.08 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 674.41$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.31 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 17c | 532.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 25c | 501.07$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 22c | 402.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 78c | 322.74$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 59c | 286.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 256.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 19c | 253.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…38e7backed No | 61c | 238.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 18c | 230.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 14c | 230.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 34c | 222.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 18c | 196.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…4c86backed Yes | 32c | 158.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 15c | 137.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 9c | 133.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 33c | 131.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 21c | 124.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 122.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 15c | 119.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 118.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 111.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 79c | 111.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 20c | 107.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 18c | 102.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 99.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 23c | 97.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 21c | 93.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 15c | 91.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 39c | 88.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…18a1backed Yes | 15c | 83.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 32c | 77.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 75.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 75.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 38c | 73.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 22c | 69.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 57.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 55.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 55.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 51.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1a…319dbacked Yes | 22c | 50.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…6d42backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 73c | 49.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 78c | 48.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 46.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 45.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 38.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 37.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 34.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 77c | 29.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 61c | 23.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 76c | 21.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 79c | 17.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…07a0backed No | 77c | 13.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.