TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe25c…7908backed No75c1,281$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.0822857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8839…ddb5backed No76c674.41$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.3121865.6%143 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes17c532.8$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7912536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes25c501.07$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.1118732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes22c402.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.323743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No78c322.74$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6624139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No59c286.3$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3828441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes39c256.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10049941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes19c253.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9523540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6757…38e7backed No61c238.74$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes18c230.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9116432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes14c230.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4217231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes34c222.85$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8838633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes18c196.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.411861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfec5…4c86backed Yes32c158.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes15c137.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.194344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae60…9c28backed Yes9c133.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.725825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes33c131.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.914531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes21c124.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.59129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes13c122.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.991,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes15c119.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.014,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes42c118.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7588028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes17c111.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.773,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No79c111.41$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.599679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes20c107.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7413051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes18c102.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4719071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e0b…0020backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1938930.3%118 W · 271 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29fb…de76backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1760519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…05a0backed Yes15c99.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.1%11 W · 170 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes47c99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.539341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes23c97.9$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.841,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes14c95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes21c93.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes15c91.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.447047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes39c88.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.412,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c88$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.355,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f0…18a1backed Yes15c83.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes19c79.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes32c77.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick38cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No69c75.39$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No79c75.18$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes38c73.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.827037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa37a…bc60backed Yes22c69.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.092050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes19c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.666735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes24c57.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.872,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes23c57.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.143,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c55.93$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.34,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No68c55.53$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.591,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72dd…7f98backed Yes35c52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.182917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes19c51.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef1a…319dbacked Yes22c50.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1048149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed No79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7515437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No73c49.66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.472,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e7…f552backed No78c48.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7135441%145 W · 209 L-19.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c46.83$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.733,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No58c45.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.081,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1264960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3c65backed No78c38.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7244465.3%290 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No66c37.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.765,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes41c36.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529941.1%123 W · 176 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No72c34.61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5871159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0786…df1dbacked No53c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5123060.9%140 W · 90 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes38c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1643842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No77c29.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7225946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No79c25.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3382268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2cff…468bbacked No79c25.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2716263%102 W · 60 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.751,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No61c23.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.198661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No76c21.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1514359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8dc…2222backed No78c19.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.235966.1%39 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c96…42efbacked No79c17.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.863183.9%26 W · 5 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick70cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9f7a…07a0backed No77c13.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.029066.7%60 W · 30 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.