Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e53a0ea4e27e6d9ded0b59e9e0ca9baa732fbe1a2daaaadeb1c1fc6e20d313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 54c | 689.52$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.46 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 37c | 509.41$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.1 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 505.71$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.13 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 479.52$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 37c | 400$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.02 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 398.73$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 42c | 275.4$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 60c | 250$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 40c | 249.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 43c | 231.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 230$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 223.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 58c | 206.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 202.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…278ebacked Yes | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 198.64$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 196.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 56c | 182.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 170.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 76c | 155.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 79c | 134.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 35c | 127$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 12c | 126.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 52c | 125.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 34c | 114.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 36c | 111.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 111.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 59c | 109.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 55c | 107.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 39c | 107.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 105.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 77c | 105.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 62c | 98.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 96.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 66c | 90.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 89.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 79c | 88.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 52c | 88.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.34 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes | 45c | 88.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…52c9backed Yes | 35c | 82.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 79.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 72.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 65.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 43c | 63.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 39c | 61.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 40c | 58.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 40c | 56.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…7f98backed Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 43c | 50.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 42c | 46.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 23c | 46.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 34c | 42.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 62c | 42.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 41.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 40.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 38.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 35.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 59c | 34.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 35c | 33.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 63c | 33.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 32.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 64c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…caf2backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 62c | 28.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 28.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 27.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…c839backed Yes | 70c | 27.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 59c | 26.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.