TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,306 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437f…5b95backed Yes54c689.52$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.4612536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes37c509.41$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.111935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes35c505.71$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1318732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No60c479.52$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes37c400$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.0228441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No35c398.73$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.463,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes42c275.4$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.186744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No60c250$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.516552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x767c…cd73backed Yes40c249.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes43c231.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.793743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c230$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.674,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No13c223.93$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.383,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes58c206.89$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No55c202.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4192…278ebacked Yes54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c198.64$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.1110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c196.57$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes56c182.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5227328.6%78 W · 195 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c170.6$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.713,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes76c155.12$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4237942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes36c138.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8829748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes79c134.97$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1323540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes35c127$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.559341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No12c126.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No52c125.33$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No45c116$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.545,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd0…3df2backed No34c114.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.779147.3%43 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes36c111.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.561861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c111.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.062,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes59c109.07$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.2313051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No55c107.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9138961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6719…a34dbacked Yes39c107.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.769129.7%27 W · 64 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No57c105.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.461,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes77c105.42$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.429448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No65c105$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2563757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ead…52adbacked Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4310850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed Yes41c99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.988028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No62c98.32$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes56c96.88$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes66c90.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7220445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No38c89.9$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.171,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes79c88.8$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4127037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes52c88.38$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.343,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9316…dc6bbacked Yes45c88.05$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes42c84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb52…52c9backed Yes35c82.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+183.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No52c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.92,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes44c79.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.793,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No47c78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0216847.6%80 W · 88 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes36c72.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.545,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c65.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.435,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b7…4cdebacked No43c63.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.448661.6%53 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes39c61.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.3616432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.849547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2718046.1%83 W · 97 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes40c58.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.437047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadf2…6599backed Yes40c56.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72dd…7f98backed Yes37c54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.782917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No43c50.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5618142.5%77 W · 104 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.54738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.544646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2171649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3054232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd12…7f29backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3115437.7%58 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9676…4374backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.832842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes37c49.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No42c46.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No23c46.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.862,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No60c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.81,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1e…0567backed No32c44.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.122748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes34c42.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2752446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc8d…0939backed Yes62c42.83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.45226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No54c41.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.541,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c40.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.623,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…89e6backed Yes73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115669.6%39 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes42c38.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3738633.4%129 W · 257 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No57c35.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.594,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No59c34.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No35c33.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.692,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes63c33.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0817231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No61c32.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No55c32.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.762,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No64c30.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5462555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475b…caf2backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9554656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1816456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No56c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.243,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes62c28.76$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes42c28.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.547,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No58c27.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.092,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfea…c839backed Yes70c27.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.02666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No59c26.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5942049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No59c24.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.