Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40406af1d42fc6fede465cadf4f822f9e0ab1e4057254552cedbe5e2c5de593d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8894…bab0backed No | 2c | 2,556$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 77c | 2,079$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.13 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,275$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 56c | 1,100$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 51c | 1,096$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.9 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 22c | 1,062$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 71c | 775.09$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.63 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 23c | 696.36$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 33c | 634.32$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 55c | 595.37$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.37 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…f921backed Yes | 58c | 592.73$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.86 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 574.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed No | 22c | 554.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 74c | 550.07$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 72c | 465.73$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 20c | 459.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 420$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 72c | 407.92$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 406.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 79c | 377.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 74c | 365.41$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdc…a0babacked Yes | 79c | 352.96$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 76c | 340.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 40c | 317$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 23c | 287.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 31c | 277.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.85 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked Yes | 77c | 273.59$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 71c | 252.16$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 248.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 238.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed No | 41c | 231.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 25c | 226.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 224.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 72c | 222$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 69c | 216.29$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 18c | 208.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed No | 14c | 199.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 19c | 198.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 61c | 195.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 192.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 26c | 191.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 67c | 165.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 34c | 162.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 62c | 160$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 23c | 155.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb739…a47bbacked Yes | 71c | 154.57$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 73c | 142.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 12c | 142$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 63c | 141.61$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 127.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 78c | 127.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 126.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 124.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…2ef8backed Yes | 78c | 118.63$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…ed24backed Yes | 78c | 116.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d7…1891backed Yes | 75c | 113.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 113.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 23c | 108$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 73c | 107.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 104.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 102.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 34c | 101.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 43c | 99.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 62c | 99.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 27c | 97.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 60c | 96.31$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 74c | 95.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 79c | 93.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 16c | 93.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 24c | 90.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 64c | 89.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 89.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 87.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 20c | 83.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 78c | 82.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 17c | 77.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…5a89backed Yes | 76c | 67.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 74c | 66.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d0…2df1backed Yes | 75c | 66.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x431f…dccfbacked Yes | 75c | 66.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf005…49b3backed Yes | 75c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…d2acbacked No | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…d893backed Yes | 78c | 61.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 79c | 61.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.