Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb500c232daaffcb7b5bc2133154a6f3338f58f4107e7259b30e8242fbfdb2bfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,747$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.33 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,740$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 35c | 1,621$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.98 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 1,006$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.02 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 640$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…f7abbacked Yes | 35c | 524.34$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 19c | 505.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 16c | 499.96$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 41c | 494.74$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 451.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 4c | 433.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 391.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 27c | 377.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 358.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 25c | 341.2$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 12c | 321.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 18c | 305.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 5c | 300.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 287.1$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 12c | 259.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 258$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 248.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc4…4ef0backed Yes | 12c | 244.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 235.6$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 27c | 230.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 28c | 208.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 15c | 201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed Yes | 26c | 199.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 13c | 195.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 193.53$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 15c | 187.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…7424backed Yes | 13c | 186.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 24c | 186$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ef…f1dcbacked Yes | 28c | 168.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 167.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 18c | 164.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 33c | 159.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 158.9$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 158.67$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 155.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…ab50backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 150.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 144.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 13c | 138$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 135.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac4…806dbacked Yes | 37c | 135.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…8468backed Yes | 49c | 133.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 133.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 132.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 127$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 117.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 65c | 112.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 12c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 23c | 110.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 110.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 103.37$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 101.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…d228backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 97.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 88.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 23c | 87.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 31c | 87.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 81.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578e…ae91backed Yes | 45c | 77.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 75c | 73$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 36c | 67.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 61.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 60.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…54dfbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 36cpaid | -79%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 51.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 43c | 46.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 79c | 45.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…cf9abacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…c349backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 80c | 24.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 80c | 24.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 22.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…5a49backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…f34bbacked No | 66c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…d776backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 76c | 14.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.