Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8000e19ceeb46c617943dcb5d57c4deb6532c9618a784e59027092c3a67fb5bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 1,187$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 1,122$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 2c | 808.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 16c | 642.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 33c | 632.29$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.78 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 612.83$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 527.72$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 13c | 479.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 462.9$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed No | 58c | 302.89$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.39 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 291.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 264.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 46c | 235.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3138…2ee1backed Yes | 42c | 235.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 226.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 66c | 207.96$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 206.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 159.42$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 158.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 143$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 131.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 118.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 35c | 114.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 107.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 105.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 102$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 97.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 97.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 48c | 97.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 33c | 95.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 29c | 94.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 93.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 44c | 92.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 91.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 91.66$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 27c | 90.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.32 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 83.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 55c | 73.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 72.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 71.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 65.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 64.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 64.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 72c | 63.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 47c | 63.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 37c | 61.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 61.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 59.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 34c | 58.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 57.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 22c | 56.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 55.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 76c | 54.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 63c | 52.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 50.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…e2e4backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80db…4a73backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 56c | 48.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 46.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 46.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 33c | 45.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 58c | 44.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 35c | 43.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…e0d4backed Yes | 36c | 41.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 40.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 39.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 34c | 38.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed No | 54c | 36.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 35.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 58c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…4fbfbacked Yes | 43c | 34.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 59c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 75c | 30.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 70c | 29.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.