Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36178b155498194c5f6db3d2038000de345a38f16a40f5347a1694fc88e39350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 12c | 3,250$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.18 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 1,230$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 620$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 546.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 2c | 478.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 462.9$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 363.15$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 5c | 314.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 235.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 74c | 199.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 196.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 195.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 195.02$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0658…41b5backed Yes | 54c | 192.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 32c | 186.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 172.74$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 150.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 75c | 138.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 133.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 132.74$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 11c | 128.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 11c | 117.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 116.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 25c | 107.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 97.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 70c | 85.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 84.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 74c | 83.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 82.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 73.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 16c | 65.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 64.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 64.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 62.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 62.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 24c | 60.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 57.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 69c | 51.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 32c | 46.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 46.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 38c | 44.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 42.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 70c | 37.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 33.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 33.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 32.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 32.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 75c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 63c | 25.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…b302backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 67c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 68c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 73c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 68c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 77c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.