Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb13b25767d267f36fc0a6a86db44cd75f492e9af8d5ae97a8ea89dc6428c22e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 1,658$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 741.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 17c | 723.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 27c | 554.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 462.9$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 373.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 345.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 306.01$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 16c | 279.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 71c | 219.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 211.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 200.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 179.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 20c | 150.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 9c | 148.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 148.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 133.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 18c | 129.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 76c | 119.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 77c | 118.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 103.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 103.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 29c | 101.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 86.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 85.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 75.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 18c | 72.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 21c | 70.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 19c | 69.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 56.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfb…35f2backed No | 78c | 52.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 25c | 45.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 30.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 28.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 74c | 26.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 18.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd489…7f08backed No | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 95 | 66.3%63 W · 32 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.