Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3171e931548a484981d6e91b4cffa1651d909cb7b5394051b5669ba8bf93e893
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 6c | 1,377$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 52c | 587.41$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.86 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 10c | 551.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 40c | 500$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.73 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 486.44$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 476.4$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 67c | 389.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.11 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 378.03$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 60c | 374.29$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.57 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 5c | 358$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 289.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 269.35$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 50c | 267.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.56 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 8c | 265.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 5c | 264.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 258.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 59c | 251.29$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.26 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 11c | 246.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 10c | 245.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 19c | 245.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 57c | 239.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 236.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 236.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 21c | 235.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 228.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 227$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 18c | 220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 64c | 212.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 209$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 62c | 175.8$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 10c | 166.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 159.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 42c | 155$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 12c | 148.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 139$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 9c | 137.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…fefebacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 122.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 37c | 118.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 78c | 115.55$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 15c | 102.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 38c | 102.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 36c | 102$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 40c | 93.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 59c | 85.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 38c | 85.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 84.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 80c | 74.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 18c | 62.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 60.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 57c | 58.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 30c | 58.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 44c | 51.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 43c | 49.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 45c | 44.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 44c | 44.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 44.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 44.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 43.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed No | 58c | 41.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 37c | 40.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 39.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 55c | 37.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 44c | 36.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 39c | 36.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 36.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…a75ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 44c | 29.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 46c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 44c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 59c | 22.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 71c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…8263backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.