Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaab61e199ce07a4d765b967f06b5a1e9db369d83b73877a11032c684c5342be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 12c | 578.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 31c | 516.75$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 499.99$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 373.82$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 9c | 316.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 311.45$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 308.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 19c | 284.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 250.4$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 65c | 198.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 34c | 171.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 164.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 30c | 163.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 32c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 17c | 132.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 125.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 124.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 35c | 119.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 67c | 116.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 113.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 112.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 30c | 105.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 105.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 29c | 101.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…baadbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 86.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 84.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 74.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 72.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 68.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7729…6df4backed Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 70c | 57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 54.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…41afbacked Yes | 38c | 51.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 61c | 38.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c73…6ab8backed Yes | 30c | 36.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 32.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e39ebacked No | 70c | 30.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 68c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 22.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 69c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…7034backed No | 70c | 18.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 68c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f93…d848backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 15.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 71c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.