Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb18d8e820f463809034678ca90d9edac037b2b4b29f6bc5a8bbd5c523d59284a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 6,310$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 14c | 953.02$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 427.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 66c | 421.69$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 380.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 374.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 322.32$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 274.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 16c | 255.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 25c | 214.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 214.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 30c | 203.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 18c | 154.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 14c | 149.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 142.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 132.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 32c | 131.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 128.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 126.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec0a…71dabacked Yes | 14c | 125.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 112.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 20c | 102.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 18c | 101.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 85.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 84.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 24c | 81.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 20c | 78.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 67.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 19c | 64.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 63.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 80c | 62.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 42c | 56.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 53.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 52.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 37.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 76c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 109 | 73.4%80 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…0c42backed No | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 23.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.