Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x960b25a9dea697e4ce5a0621e8ca1e0263953540810b88a2962e9fb47d01cd37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 1,767$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 65c | 999.75$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.92 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 11c | 779.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 560$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 537.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 23c | 512.8$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 58c | 491.72$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.28 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 61c | 352.95$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 319.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340c…f130backed Yes | 25c | 303.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 302$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 300.14$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 24c | 296.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 283.96$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 270.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 244.23$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 226.36$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 215.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 44c | 202.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 50c | 200.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.49 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 198.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 62c | 193$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 188.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 183.11$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 32c | 173.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 164.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.74 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 155.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 43c | 153.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…acd3backed Yes | 37c | 149.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 70c | 145.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 144$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 51c | 140.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 137.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 74c | 134.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 121$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 119.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 116.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 51c | 115.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 46c | 112.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 106$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 27c | 105.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 40c | 105$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.13 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 104.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 32c | 100.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 37c | 97.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 95.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 94.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 94.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 63c | 90.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 43c | 88.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 32c | 87.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed Yes | 42c | 84.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 41c | 84.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 30c | 80.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 61c | 74.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 37c | 74.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 25c | 71.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 17c | 69.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 46c | 69.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 34c | 66.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad2…3887backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 29c | 65.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 72c | 63.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 22c | 63.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 62.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 32c | 61.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 25c | 61.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 60.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 59.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 58.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 55.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 61c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 52.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 48.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed No | 59c | 46.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 59c | 45.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 73c | 45.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…f7c2backed Yes | 40c | 42.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 28c | 38.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…c46ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffd…43f9backed No | 73c | 34.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…ef73backed Yes | 29c | 34.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.