Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7850b03aa4ae800077846a5c46006fda030cf79378b8aecce5e76438b751c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 2c | 1,448$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 1,229$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 989.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 76c | 832.38$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 26c | 538.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.97 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 78c | 513.44$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.18 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 491.31$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 414.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.86 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 353.44$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.44 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 6c | 348.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 298$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 251.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 251.24$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 13c | 231.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 50c | 215.17$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 211.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 17c | 198.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 191.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 179.22$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 11c | 173.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 69c | 169.95$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 9c | 149.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 142.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 59c | 140.18$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 31c | 139.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 20c | 139.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 138.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 76c | 131.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 77c | 129.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 77c | 127.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 24c | 126.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 121.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 52c | 119.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 77c | 116$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 77c | 114.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.34 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 31c | 113$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 111.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 110.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 10c | 109.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 105.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 102.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 94.37$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.17 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 88.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 81.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 46c | 80.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 48c | 77.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 76.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 16c | 75.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 20c | 74.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 21c | 70.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 25c | 68.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 68.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 66.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 59c | 65.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ca…739abacked No | 77c | 65.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 20c | 64.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 64.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 75c | 62.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 21c | 61.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 79c | 60.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 42c | 57.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 55.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 38c | 51.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ac…764abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 47.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 42.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 77c | 42.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 37.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 35.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 33.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 29.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 76c | 24.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 18.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…f3efbacked No | 79c | 18.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…40a6backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 77c | 14.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.